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News
aapl +7%
we had nfp this morning
now we have these big news all out
Condition 1
we are in a 3 week balance area
Condition 2
We open with a huge gap up at the top of the balance area
Thoughts
I do not buy huge gaps early, i wait for at least some fade auction
Now we have the chance to leave that choppy 3 week balance area behind us
the top of it is a clear line in the sand (with the challenge that we have already moved up a good way when going through)
Let it at least balance out a bit
Looking above and fail would be easier but we take it as it comes
Condition 1
We start in a condition where the low ot the 6% down swing could be in and there should be more buying (covering) if it is
I would change my mind if we see acceptance below fridays low (break of otf up on ther daily)
Condition 0
We open with a small gap (3rd gap in a row)
Thoughts
The market is clearly otf up
At one point we will find sellers and Balance
While going with what is (buyers in control) do not sit on the flagpole
Condition 0
Gap down
We have an interesting vpoc and tpo poc from monday
we have interesting gaps
Thoughts
Let the low of a potential balance area develop. No need to antizipate it
Better trade a bit later than sooner today Information risk versus price risk
Condition 1
The daily is otf up
We had a liquidation o friday but it did not come very far
Condition 0
We open near fridays high which is bullish
Thoughts
If we do not come back in the liqui belly fast i see no reason to think other than bullish
with the caveat that we already moved a good distance the last days
Looked not bad for a liquidation with the weak high and todays excess above but this lasts too long. So i am out.
trades 0513
Weak and poor highs indicate that a market is too long on this timeframe. It has no power to get through the highs. A liquidation is needed to balance inventory (on this timeframe).
In addition they indicate that on the higher timeframe the auction is not finished (because we have no excess)
So in theory the behaviour is 1) a backing away from the poor/weak high (with a liquidation) and 2) a later repair by pushing through and create excess (because it moved too high and sellers get in control)
