Well, I guess thats it. I have figured it out, the market I mean. It took me about 15 years. 15 years of a crazy journey. Writing it down on this board because this was the last place of my online "education". Not that I have learned a lot here or something - actually I came here because I was searching for a tool, but thats not important.
This journal I assume is going to be a bit different than others. Maybe a bit more personal so I can talk to someone - me included. Why? There are many answers to that question which I hope to write down in coming time.
This is really odd feeling, after such long time of researching, giving up, being excited too early, on and on again...
I always had a need to understand the market in logical way, in sort of mechanical perspective, I always belived its possible to describe the market in mathematical way - not like there is some secret formula, no, more like a chain of interactions between events which are outcomes of some sorts of mass psychology.
Anyway, I will write about what I see on the market, mostly 6E/eurusd. I just do a lot of calculations and can not focus on more than one instrument at one time. I do understand that when someone brags about figuring out the market there needs to be some kind of proof. So for some let there be a proof, for me a form of journal.
I wont be posting regularly though. After 15 years of researching I guess Im a great number cruncher, but in the same time not that great trader. The paradox is that only because I was a lousy trader I always had to push my research to get me to the point that its really hard to loose. So the whole concept had to be as perfect as possible. Small stops, great accuracy, not scalping... but above all I had to figure out something that will give me logical understanding of what is going on in the market. On the other hand I still have a day job, yea really, the guy who figured it out. Thats what brings me down a bit but I hope it will change in no time.
To tell you the truth, I love it, not trading, I love to analyse, do the research, backtest, then forward test. But you know what, after 15 years I guess you might start to worry a bit about if what you do in your life, how you exploited the potential of your intelect was in the right direction, if trading was a good bet. Lot of my friends got there businesses rolling nicely after 2-5 years, some of them are doing really great, and well, sometimes these thoughts just come to mind. Was it a good deal?
This is why im not so much excited about this whole thing I got here. If this was 10 years ago I would be probably drinking whole week I guess. The other thing is that it didnt happen overnight, it wasnt one of those eureka moments. Last couple months were crucial and all the pieces started to come together but it was like I already knew what Im looking for so the only problem was to dig deep into the problem. So a lot of hard work.
So the very general description of my concept is that I analyze the order flow. Yep, bid, asks and price. There is no way I could do this without bid/ask/price data. I used marketdelta, ofa, sierra number bars, doesnt matter really which one you use. I go with iqfeed because it seems like they have very nice, stable and clean feed (also historical data).
The funny thing about all these concepts out there is, that in general most of them are right. In theory. Buyers, sellers, who is in control, where are the stops, where are the targets. Everything evolves around these terms. So like the mechanics of supply.demand are well known - but when you try to sit down with a piece of paper and say, ok, so how do I know where are all these things on my chart, how do I get this information out of the data the problems arise. And the amount of possible solutions!
...later