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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
Started:October 26th, 2011 (05:20 PM) by kbit Views / Replies:38,932 / 803
Last Reply:2 Hours Ago (08:49 AM) Attachments:185

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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

Old February 8th, 2012, 07:21 PM   #251 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Just got this....though it seems like these guys are usually wrong, I'm inclined to somewhat agree this time since it's in line with what I'm seeing(though I don't look at all thier funky patterns)....but if I were you I would ultimately listen to me and not them
>
>
It could be in looking at the intraday chart below with there being a possibility that the original Diamond Top outlined the other day is growing into a bigger Diamond Top along with its cousin patterns shown or a Broadening Top and a potential Complex Head and Shoulders pattern.


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Maybe this bearish pattern combo breaks to the upside and something that requires confirmation with a rise above 1349 for a target of about 1370 while the downside scenario confirms at 1336 for a target of 1316 with confirmation unlikely to come until Friday or Monday if the combo remains good.

In turn, this suggests the S&P might trade down to about 1339 today before bouncing up to about 1345 on Thursday before tapering out between those two levels ahead of confirming up or down.

Should that sideways trading take place, it will probably mean that the S&Pís Diamond is getting bigger.

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Old February 8th, 2012, 07:22 PM   #252 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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PT on the NQ

Based on the charts of the Nasdaq Composite and the equity index trading above its long-term sideways trend for days now, it does seem to be a possibility and one that may manifest in the relatively near future.


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Starting out with the intraday chart of the Nasdaq Composite, it is showing a Broadening Formation and a quasi-Diamond Top and Head and Shoulders combo similar to the one shown in the S&P and something that should be bearish for the Nasdaq Composite, but what appears truly bearish for the Nasdaq Composite is that unclosed gap at 2868.

It is unclear when this gap might try to close with the intraday chart pointing to a possible Island Reversal taking place soon and something that would close that gap while its daily chart shows that its unclosed gaps to the downside have remained unclosed for days, if not weeks, before the Nasdaq Composite has dropped to close those gaps.

Looking at just the last year, it is all but certain that the Nasdaq Composite will drop back to 2868 and something that will reinforce its long-term sideways trend even though it does not make certain that such a reinforcement might last.


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Rather than showing that long-term sideways trend as a Sideways Trend Channel, letís look at it in the form of a large Symmetrical Triangle as shown in the monthly chart below.


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It is showing an upside breakout from that multi-year pattern with the top trendline representing its all-important third Bull Fan Line to mark the beginning of a reversal of the sideways trend to the upside and it is useful because it provides a level by which to identify the Nasdaq Compositeís positioning in relation to its sideways trend even when drawn as a horizontal Channel.

Specifically, if the Nasdaq Composite remains above about 2627, then it is probably pretty safe to believe that its long-term sideways trend is being defied to the upside, but below 2627 and its long-term sideways trend will be very much in control and something that means the Nasdaq Composite will be spit back down to the bottom of that Symmetrical Triangle at about 1500 within 12 months or so.

What makes this so interesting is the fact that the Nasdaq Composite broke above this long-term Symmetrical Triangle just this year, but it did so on, yes, a gap that had been pointed here several weeks ago several times at 2617 and a level right above that 2627 level that marks the demarcation around the Symmetrical Triangleís top trendline.

And this brings up the precise point raised a few weeks ago when that originating gap was first highlighted and that is to question whether a 20%+ move up can happen on top of an unclosed gap.

Interestingly, it has happened in the past as a part of the whole QE2 rally on a gap at 2252 and a gap that has yet to close, but maybe the three unclosed gaps highlighted here provide a reason to think that sideways will resurface.

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Old February 9th, 2012, 08:34 AM   #253 (permalink)
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Looking like I MIGHT be wrong on the drop happening now.....was thinking we'd be on the way down by now.

At this point we have to see what happens at 51-52 on the ES.....and watch where we are on TF .....

I need to do some homework to figure out some other areas above here becuase it might happen soon if these tops we have now get taken out....technically we have enough to get up to 850 and change if it breaks the highs....

As I'm writing this ES just hit 52 and TF is below it's high ....we'll see

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Old February 9th, 2012, 08:46 AM   #254 (permalink)
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I should explain why I'm a liitle concerned....about my downside /pullback idea.....to put it simply it won't go down....

The TF went down yesterday and hit 819 but wouldn't go through it .....we really need to get through that area to do anything....the ES as you know just keeps grinding higher...last nights low wasn't very low at all....

I probably have everyone totally confused ...just watch the high on ES and see if it holds.....

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Old February 9th, 2012, 10:09 AM   #255 (permalink)
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Current BMT User Poll

Should sim traders that pretend to trade cash be allowed on BMT?

 
Monthly vwap and S1 at 819.4 today

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Old February 9th, 2012, 10:12 AM   #256 (permalink)
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@kbit, can you post a new chart showing your S/R?

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Old February 9th, 2012, 11:03 AM   #257 (permalink)
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I don't really have lines showing S/R areas...the areas are in my twisted head...this is what I'm looking at now.

I will post something with lines later on

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Old February 9th, 2012, 11:52 AM   #258 (permalink)
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For all you TF traders out there, since the TF isn't as liquid as some of the other markets what is the max amount of contracts that can be traded without any problems getting filled?

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Old February 9th, 2012, 12:06 PM   #259 (permalink)
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For all you TF traders out there, since the TF isn't as liquid as some of the other markets what is the max amount of contracts that can be traded without any problems getting filled?

Depends on conditions....and where your looking to get filled...that's tough to answer.....

If your trading RTH you won't have a problem unless your trading 50 lots or something.....I have problems occasionally but not to often. After hours forget it...stick with the ES

Like I said if you are good enough to pick your spots right to the tick (say you went long at 818.1 today) it might be tough to get everything filled but other than that you'll be alright.

Just try it and see.

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Old February 9th, 2012, 12:48 PM   #260 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Depends on conditions....and where your looking to get filled...that's tough to answer.....

If your trading RTH you won't have a problem unless your trading 50 lots or something.....I have problems occasionally but not to often. After hours forget it...stick with the ES

Like I said if you are good enough to pick your spots right to the tick (say you went long at 818.1 today) it might be tough to get everything filled but other than that you'll be alright.

Just try it and see.


Ok, thanks. I will be trading from 10-12est. and I was wondering if I am able to develop a system for the TF that's consistent enough if I would be able to work up to trade 10 contracts without problem.

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