what I'm looking at on DX...

TF looks like it will explode higher if it breaks above...that said I'm still favoring the downside unless/until it pops...unless we get a pop and drop which I'm thinking won't happen in this case but just wanted to mention it.

today E2k plunge down more than 20 points before lunch.
seems rare to move so much in one direction.

Made it to 22...looking to get back to 32 then go from there

Looking for shorts around the red lines ...that said would be willing to go long as well, but bigger picture I'm looking for more downside.



As a side note, I know tigertrader has been harping on having a bias and thought I would post my view here to avoid a prolonged argument. I think we all have some sort of bias all the time...the question is whether you got that bias by looking at a chart that 'says' a particular instrument is going up(like the monthly on TF for the last few years for example) or by some gut feeling or something not valid.

So maybe that is the real issue with bias...whether it's valid or not. Maybe the charts are the only thing that can justify a bias...I'm not sure, I suppose a bias has to be in relation to context, that is to say for example a five minute chart isn't likely to tell you where the market might be next week for example but a weekly is good to give you a sense/bias for the next week. Of course the higher time frames will give you a bias that you would factor in when trading smaller frames....don't most of us do that? We also have to keep in mind that there are pullbacks and shakeouts and news events that have to be factored in.

Aside from that is something like the fed announcing QE and as a result you get a long side bias.

I'll wrap up my contorted thought with just saying it's ok to have a bias(and probable that you do) but it should be based on something legitimate not a gut feeling or something obviously nonsensical AND must be confirmed with price action and kept in context.

I think the issue with the word bias is largely semantics. it all boils down to this: did you formulate an opinion about being long or short, and then seek information to validate that opinion? Or, do you look at the information, and then make the decision on whether to be long or short? The former is having a bias that is going to be impossible to change, while the latter is having a bias that, if updated the same way it was formed, is going to be dynamic and easier to adapt.

josh 

I think the issue with the word bias is largely semantics. it all boils down to this: did you formulate an opinion about being long or short, and then seek information to validate that opinion? Or, do you look at the information, and then make the decision on whether to be long or short? The former is having a bias that is going to be impossible to change, while the latter is having a bias that, if updated the same way it was formed, is going to be dynamic and easier to adapt.

I think you could boil it down even further.

Are you long, short, or flat?

We all trade our beliefs.

Mike

Big Mike 

I think you could boil it down even further. Are you long, short, or flat? We all trade our beliefs. Mike

Beliefs are for the religious person.

looking to get down to 44.6 at least, trying short from 55 as I posted on the 28th...went through the 37 area with no signal to go short .

Might actually get another leg down this time...engulfing bar on daily. Last time I expected another leg down it wasted no time flipping and went back to the top() so...just being careful and going with the flow.

That said if it gets past 1260 on the upside I'll write it off. I'm not seeing a place to get back in short yet, actually had some long signals but am going to pass. If/when we get under 43 it could get interesting...

Sooner or later the buy the dip stuff is not going to work, remember the guys who kept buying the dips in the Euro after it hit 1.6 ? ....they are janitors now. I see the same thing happening here at some point....just a matter of when. Yeah I know most of the charts are bullish right now....just saying.