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Search: Posts Made By: ElChacal
Forum: Commodities March 24th, 2024, 12:23 AM
Replies: 368
Views: 89,590
Posted By ElChacal
It is close to record lows currently. And yes I...

It is close to record lows currently. And yes I would be wary about ever playing the short side even at normal 'year highs'.
Forum: Commodities March 23rd, 2024, 10:10 PM
Replies: 368
Views: 89,590
Posted By ElChacal
And here is the same plot adding min and max for...

And here is the same plot adding min and max for each month since 1997. Market doesn't give away anything.
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=338544
Forum: Commodities March 23rd, 2024, 09:26 PM
Replies: 368
Views: 89,590
Posted By ElChacal
Apologies, I plotted from 1997 until Feb-2024....

Apologies, I plotted from 1997 until Feb-2024. Buy in March, sell in December
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=338543
Forum: Commodities February 7th, 2024, 01:32 PM
Replies: 368
Views: 89,590
Posted By ElChacal
Not in front of computer but I did a graph and...

Not in front of computer but I did a graph and recall that Jan-Mar prices were usually low and would peak by June or August, although counter-intuitive.
Also, gas is one of the few commodities that...
Forum: Commodities February 7th, 2024, 11:00 AM
Replies: 368
Views: 89,590
Posted By ElChacal
Despite the high inventories. The seasonal curve...

Despite the high inventories. The seasonal curve is looking pretty attractive.
Forum: Commodities August 21st, 2019, 11:50 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
$DWT getting lots of attention today and also...

$DWT getting lots of attention today and also yesterday. Seems CL is meeting resistance at this level.
Forum: Commodities August 7th, 2019, 03:55 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
Looking green... :popcorn: (As a...

Looking green... :popcorn:

(As a "correlated" bias, ^TNX seems to be following...)
Forum: Commodities August 7th, 2019, 12:41 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
It may well be a big dump. Platform shows $202MM...

It may well be a big dump. Platform shows $202MM traded today...
Forum: Commodities August 7th, 2019, 10:58 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
UWT call?

Seems like a good place to start a small Long position in Crude Oil. $UWT stock is getting lots of attention today.
Forum: Commodities April 11th, 2019, 06:47 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
EIA report ...

EIA report
https://twitter.com/iea/status/1116253325501063168?s=21


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app (https://on.futures.io/app)
Forum: Commodities March 21st, 2019, 01:15 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
IMO 2020 will increase all shipping rates but...

IMO 2020 will increase all shipping rates but nobody’s still sure by how much

https://www.ft.com/content/c486bfe6-4b05-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app...
Forum: Commodities March 8th, 2019, 01:07 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
A little correlation

So people won't say I make up stuff...

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=263739
Forum: Commodities March 8th, 2019, 12:39 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
Falling Crude prices = falling inflation =...

Falling Crude prices = falling inflation = falling yields = good for Treasury futures.
I think Defensive mode is on. Risk off.
Forum: Treasury Notes and Bonds February 25th, 2019, 06:16 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 12,343
Posted By ElChacal
Here’s the rate of the 10-year note. Different...

Here’s the rate of the 10-year note. Different animal.
263299


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app (https://on.futures.io/app)
Forum: Treasury Notes and Bonds February 25th, 2019, 06:14 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 12,343
Posted By ElChacal
Here’s how the 2-year rate follows the Fed Funds...

Here’s how the 2-year rate follows the Fed Funds rate. Does not behave the same way with other maturities. Something to keep in mind.
263298


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app...
Forum: Treasury Notes and Bonds February 25th, 2019, 02:53 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 12,343
Posted By ElChacal
https://twitter.com/4awesometweet/status/110007321...

https://twitter.com/4awesometweet/status/1100073211453104128?s=21


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app (https://on.futures.io/app)
Forum: Treasury Notes and Bonds February 21st, 2019, 10:15 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 12,343
Posted By ElChacal
Considering how close the Notes yields are to the...

Considering how close the Notes yields are to the Fed Funds rate ~2.5%, I believe treasury notes may be overpriced...
The bill is paying as much as the 5 year... crazy bonds...


Sent using the...
Forum: Treasury Notes and Bonds February 20th, 2019, 10:36 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 12,343
Posted By ElChacal
TUF? anybody?

Would it be a good time to sell the TUF spread? I mean sell 5-year and buy the 2-year. I am assuming the 5-year yield would need to catch up to the 2 year, right?
Any advice is more than welcome.
...
Forum: Treasury Notes and Bonds February 7th, 2019, 02:35 PM
Replies: 465
Views: 123,508
Posted By ElChacal
Good call. What do you normally look at to...

Good call.
What do you normally look at to trade bonds?


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app (https://on.futures.io/app)
Forum: Commodities February 5th, 2019, 10:22 PM
Replies: 137
Views: 32,773
Posted By ElChacal
I would state that a steepening yield curve is...

I would state that a steepening yield curve is bearish for gold but to me the big question is, is the yield curve steepening or will it continue to flatten?
I honestly don't know as I am still...
Forum: Commodities February 2nd, 2019, 01:56 AM
Replies: 137
Views: 32,773
Posted By ElChacal
What fundamental service do you use and how much...

What fundamental service do you use and how much is it? I am really interested on knowing if there is any particular service you use or can suggest.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app...
Forum: Commodities January 29th, 2019, 02:40 PM
Replies: 137
Views: 32,773
Posted By ElChacal
Right... The government shutdown has us without...

Right... The government shutdown has us without the COTs and I would really need confirmation. But I am noticing a pattern that makes me think it has bottomed out. Again would need the COT report to...
Forum: Commodities January 29th, 2019, 09:28 AM
Replies: 137
Views: 32,773
Posted By ElChacal
Copper is looking interesting. Unfortunately, I...

Copper is looking interesting. Unfortunately, I have all my funds busy on other trades.
Trading months March, May and July are trading at a premium compared to each subsequent month. Not sure how...
Forum: Stocks and ETFs January 26th, 2019, 11:10 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 3,063
Posted By ElChacal
Update: I’ve simply been buying calls. They are...

Update: I’ve simply been buying calls. They are much cheaper.


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app (https://on.futures.io/app)
Forum: Commodities January 9th, 2019, 10:06 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 617,873
Posted By ElChacal
It's interesting how both in futures and options...

It's interesting how both in futures and options you also need to get the contract right besides the trade direction. I think I hopped on too early with my USO Calls but "mid term" I got the...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 194
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