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Posts Made By:
lrfsdad
Forum:
Options
September 13th, 2013, 02:23 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
Do you want to have a directional bias when...
Do you want to have a directional bias when employing this strategy?
Forum:
Options
September 8th, 2013, 01:13 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
Greg Loehr I just read your article in this...
Greg Loehr
I just read your article in this month's issue of futures magazine. Can you provide some candidates for this strategy?
Thanks
Forum:
Options
August 3rd, 2013, 11:38 AM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
so your saying an option with a delta of .2 has a...
so your saying an option with a delta of .2 has a 20% chance of expiring ITM? This is figured into the pricing weather it expires in a week or 6 months? Obviously as the delta increases, so does...
Forum:
Options
August 2nd, 2013, 10:49 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
I'm not familiar with that strategy, please...
I'm not familiar with that strategy, please advise. Thanks!
Forum:
Options
July 23rd, 2013, 10:36 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
I've found that the event causing the high...
I've found that the event causing the high volatility (like earnings) throws probabilities out the window. Since I started this thread, my business has been occupying more of my time. IB doesn't...
Forum:
Options
April 25th, 2013, 03:53 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
ouch!! Why I don't like short naked stock options.
Akam beat expectations by .04 and this means a 20% rise in the stock today: I have been using a tgt about 10% away from current prices (short strike) for the purpose of this exercise.
...
Forum:
Options
April 22nd, 2013, 10:24 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10...
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=109782
1158.80 profit on both spreads 3341.2 Risk. 34.6% ROI
Forum:
Options
April 19th, 2013, 04:12 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
payday!!!
the GES and GMCR positions expired worthless about 10 minutes ago. Will show p&l after settlement on my statement over the weekend:
So far 3 postions, 3 winners. no emotion, just probabilities....
Forum:
Options
April 3rd, 2013, 07:41 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
Long 65 call Short 62.5 call stock at time...
Long 65 call
Short 62.5 call
stock at time of putting on position: 57.40
short 52.5 put
long 50.00 put
Here is a better shot of the positions with the contract description column widened: ...
Forum:
Options
April 2nd, 2013, 04:03 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
Ges update and new trade:
even with the short put at the money, the spread is slightly ahead (about $180) I've decided to hold as opposed to cover as there is alot of premium left on the short 25 put and with just over 2...
Forum:
Options
March 26th, 2013, 10:28 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
One of the motivating factors for this thread was...
One of the motivating factors for this thread was this video OPTION TRADER makes $105MM PROFIT in the NDX, SPX & RUT - Her STORY Uncovered - YouTube (http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BquDGE9KxZQ)
I...
Forum:
Options
March 23rd, 2013, 08:19 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
GES
using the same criteria, I have the same spread on in GES. April expiry though so a few weeks left. Put on when the stock was 27.92 on 3-12-13. It closed Friday just over 25.00. Implied vol vs...
Forum:
Options
March 23rd, 2013, 07:51 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
volatility
I should mention that I came across this stock using a high implied volatility over historical stock scan at IB. I would post a screen shot, but implied vol isn't coming up probably because the mkt...
Forum:
Options
March 23rd, 2013, 07:41 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
oops, I risked 1815 to make 685. ...
oops, I risked 1815 to make 685.
685/1815=37% ROI in 5 days.
so using the above mentioned probabilities of about 20%, if I do this trade 100 times, 80 times I would make 685, or 54800 total...
Forum:
Options
March 23rd, 2013, 03:15 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
sim trade
I put this trade on in LULU on Monday. I chose short strikes about 10% out of the money on the weeklies. Then the next strike for the long protection option....
Forum:
Options
March 21st, 2013, 07:20 AM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
I too like strangles, and had success with them...
I too like strangles, and had success with them in higher volatility environments (in the es). Strangles in stocks seem more dangerous with out the out of the money protection like you have in an...
Forum:
Options
March 20th, 2013, 10:43 PM
Replies:
30
Option R:R vs. probabilities
Views:
8,769
Posted By
lrfsdad
Option R:R vs. probabilities
When trading options, what is a good ratio of probability vs reward:risk? When buying naked options, the risk is capped with exponential returns possible, but the probability is low.
Credit...
Showing results 1 to 17 of 17
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