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Search: Posts Made By: jokertrader
Forum: Commodities September 17th, 2022, 12:56 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
damn ive been away for some time..confusing as...

damn ive been away for some time..confusing as ever though margjns on the front end are def higher
Forum: Commodities February 11th, 2021, 11:26 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Severe backwardation in 12 month spreads? Need to...

Severe backwardation in 12 month spreads? Need to look how the shorter duration flys are doing

https://twitter.com/BrynneKKelly/status/1359885280770224129?s=09



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Forum: Commodities December 18th, 2020, 02:00 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
So consultation does not mean it will happen......

So consultation does not mean it will happen... but if it does happen...
Would think this would impact physical more than futures or will it affect WTI?


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Forum: Commodities October 15th, 2020, 09:11 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
A quick article ...

A quick article

https://energyanalyst.co.uk/trading-on-mean-reversion-in-energy-futures-markets/


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Forum: Commodities September 21st, 2020, 01:26 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
So looks like last year by week 5 after Sept...

So looks like last year by week 5 after Sept 17,2019 short positions were reduced until about early Jan
Then Short positions increased and stayed low through the low in mid March until mid April.....
Forum: Commodities September 18th, 2020, 03:29 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Sounds logical only catch is the Saudi minister...

Sounds logical only catch is the Saudi minister warning speculators to not short the market they might manipulate sometimes just to prove that point


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Forum: Commodities July 19th, 2020, 05:16 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
This is great analysis.. just a few points I...

This is great analysis.. just a few points

I think the cost indicated of $1.40 are the exchange fees.
Also the $1.40 for exchange seems discounted from the actual CME fee (interesting!!!)
Not...
Forum: Commodities May 20th, 2020, 09:51 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
IB shitting in their pants??! Sorry for being so...

IB shitting in their pants??! Sorry for being so crass but just a thought


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Forum: Commodities May 6th, 2020, 02:31 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Maybe many FCMs are not allowing trading June but...

Maybe many FCMs are not allowing trading June but ok with July.. hence the volume in July.. just a guess
Forum: Commodities April 25th, 2020, 09:02 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Thanks.. a wealth of information summarized...

Thanks.. a wealth of information summarized better than more textbooks..btw, at some point you had posted one or 2 books describing the crude oil supply chain process (meaning all different aspects...
Forum: Commodities April 19th, 2020, 01:26 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Maybe Sunday’s gaps will be more of an occurrence...

Maybe Sunday’s gaps will be more of an occurrence and I can “fly” back to mean - saw it on March 9th only with the July 1 Month fly


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Forum: Commodities April 15th, 2020, 11:22 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Severe contango especially in the 3 and 6 month...

Severe contango especially in the 3 and 6 month spreads when front leg is front or close to front month.. never really analyzed rollovers.. is there a trade there with edge?
I dont think just...
Forum: Commodities April 7th, 2020, 02:28 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Update: USO rolling from April 7 to 13th, has...

Update: USO rolling from April 7 to 13th, has 3.5B in assets and account for about 20% I guess of front month volume


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Forum: Commodities April 6th, 2020, 08:48 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Wonder if with such Contango the USO roll will...

Wonder if with such Contango the USO roll will affect the front months? Couldn’t find if there is a set date for the roll though it says within 2 weeks of expiration


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Forum: Commodities April 4th, 2020, 05:58 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
OPEC Monday meeting delayed. Texas Railroad...

OPEC Monday meeting delayed. Texas Railroad Commission to wait until April 14 for hearing. Boy o boy what happens between now and then... teens again?


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Forum: Commodities March 13th, 2020, 05:14 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Thanks for the above thoughts. After some more...

Thanks for the above thoughts.
After some more thought, i agree. Since we are talking strictly taking a directional view on oil (relative trades are different), my goal was to minimize risk with a...
Forum: Commodities March 12th, 2020, 02:35 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Question on oil ETFs - to buy and which one? ...

Question on oil ETFs - to buy and which one?

I am looking at these oil ETFs and they all seem like a decent value buy. USO seems to have the largest market cap. The ETFs i have looked at are the...
Forum: Commodities March 6th, 2020, 11:36 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
What’s tools/platform do u have? You can put...

What’s tools/platform do u have? You can put these as studies in Sierra and download into spreadsheet study/excel- then change the chart to whatever timeframe and download that


Sent using the...
Forum: Commodities December 11th, 2019, 03:17 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Posting volatility for several CL spreads

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=281585

20 day ATR to guage what type of instruments are suitable for retail
Forum: Commodities August 21st, 2019, 11:34 AM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
In Sim was more testing TT Sent using the...

In Sim was more testing TT


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Forum: Commodities August 20th, 2019, 09:47 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Found that putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly better...

Found that putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly better using 12 month calendars rather than outrights (of course cost is commissions)


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Forum: Commodities April 27th, 2019, 12:08 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Yes the nearer spreads will be more volatile but...

Yes the nearer spreads will be more volatile but will it be 3 times more I don’t think but will check but the real scenario I am trying to hedge is to eliminate or catch sudden spikes and if it...
Forum: Commodities April 26th, 2019, 09:28 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
If only I could hedge my z19/20 with u19/h20...

If only I could hedge my z19/20 with u19/h20 combined with mini crude until this thing rolls over....how to try to be delta neutral/positive/negative.....hmm maybe tracking the daily std deviation of...
Forum: Commodities February 13th, 2019, 06:14 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
What happens to back month spreads when front month expires?

Anything?
Am i right in assuming Dec 19 or June 20 prices will not change when March expires, rolls over into April or if not, what will the effect be?
Forum: Commodities January 8th, 2019, 07:08 PM
Replies: 2,696
Views: 626,519
Posted By jokertrader
Well I am still in the other camp building short...

Well I am still in the other camp building short spread positions...though hurting a bit :)


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