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Thanks for your reply. Yes, I looked back over the past year's price moving pattern and I saw that every time the price came back up from under the 21 EMA it continued to go higher. Like I stated in the original results analysis, when I bought this stock on March 14th it technically hadn't closed above the 21 EMA. In after hours it closed right AT the 21 EMA level. I see you are an advanced trader. What further analysis would you have done? Willing to learn. Thanks for your time.
I am big on historical testing 1) so you can see if your approach has any merit (edge) to it, and 2) to give you confidence to pull the trigger and follow the strategy when you see it in real time.
I usually try to get at least 5 years of detailed testing.
I can define all the rules I use to enter and exit. Many people, for many good reasons, cannot. If you fall into that category, I'd recommend testing pieces of your approach. Test whatever you can, for as long as you can.
Some people will say historical testing is useless (I don't agree), and if you do it incorrectly, it can actually do a lot more harm than good (I agree with that). Real time testing is always king, but it takes a long time to get any kind of statistical significance.
Thanks for your analysis. I don't understand how you saw 99 and 94 as supports. Also, could you teach me how to get a slow stochastic. I tried to set it like yours, but I don't know what to put for "period of fast avg."
I don't use your charting service but there is no 3rd parameter for a slow Stochastic so I would only guess looking at that setting selection that it should be null or set to one to get a pure slow stochastic...the normal observation period is 14 days but I like a smoother line and choose 30 days
I use P&F charts to find horizontal resistances/supports. These charts are considered "old school" but I grew up using them and like them for horizontal resistance support.
there is no timeline to this type of chart...numbers and letters in the chart are there only as guides to show the time of year. "X" columns show a rising price, "O" columns show a falling price...I use a 3 box reversal to go from one column to another and I selected a $0.50 box size which is not a traditional size but works for me at this price level.
When the price is falling the tops of "X" columns and bottoms of "O" columns represent support points when they are below the price...as you pass through a support it becomes a resistance...similarly in a rising column the tops of "X" columns and bottoms of "O" columns represent resistances....basic support/resistance stuff.
The above chart shows the drawing of resistance/support lines that are currently there. You can see at times a diagonal resistance and/or support in such charts but currently none show there.
However in a normal candlestick chart they are easily found
So currently, to me the share price is bouncing within two sets of resistance/support with the to me it is not easy to decide if the price is going to break a resistance or support in the near future...but watching the price perform in those ranges will tell the story soon enough.
you do get my point, guay? moving averages are derivative of price, and is a a lagging indicator, for the very reason that it is based on past prices. it has no value other than to smooth out price action and really isn't helpful unless the data series is noisy, like the $tiki, por ejemplo. like other summary tools, they obliterate structure as they smooth away all the structural information inherent in the price action. in any case, wherever price goes, its moving average is sure to follow.
