NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Greece May Be First EU Default


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one choke35 with 30 posts (38 thanks)
    2. looks_two rleplae with 21 posts (34 thanks)
    3. looks_3 bobwest with 16 posts (35 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Fat Tails with 13 posts (45 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 3.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two bobwest with 2.2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 rleplae with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 choke35 with 1.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 47,883 views
    2. thumb_up 244 thanks given
    3. group 13 followers
    1. forum 121 posts
    2. attach_file 9 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Greece May Be First EU Default

  #61 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Trading: ES, YM, 6E
Posts: 2,668 since Feb 2013
Thanks Given: 5,101
Thanks Received: 6,558


Tymbeline View Post
Most European countries have had coalition governments for most of the last 40 years.

At the moment, Cameron's UK government (with his slender majority of just 12 seats out of 650) is one of only three out of Europe's 28 countries with a single party majority: How coalitions dominate Europe: David Cameron's majority makes UK one of only three single party governments | City A.M.

Bring us more news

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
About a successful futures trader who didnt know anythin …
Psychology and Money Management
REcommedations for programming help
Sierra Chart
Trade idea based off three indicators.
Traders Hideout
What broker to use for trading palladium futures
Commodities
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
 
  #62 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Trading: ES, YM, 6E
Posts: 2,668 since Feb 2013
Thanks Given: 5,101
Thanks Received: 6,558


choke35 View Post
There are x further Greek reform bills to adopt and implement in the weeks and months ahead.
This Syriza farce - half a year of talking large and whiny failure to act up to now - can't go on forever.
Either a government has a majority and works with it or it is told to get packing.

As anticipated the Interior Secretary has started talks about early elections in September or October
in order to ensure a parliamentary majority for the reform process (or against?).

Reply With Quote
  #63 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Trading: ES, YM, 6E
Posts: 2,668 since Feb 2013
Thanks Given: 5,101
Thanks Received: 6,558


Draghi in the ECB press conference:

To the best of his knowledge, the ECB will be paid by Greece on July 20th
as well as the IMF will also be paid (!).

Reply With Quote
  #64 (permalink)
 
Malthus's Avatar
 Malthus 
Madrid Spain
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Trading: ES
Posts: 251 since Oct 2014
Thanks Given: 1,252
Thanks Received: 708


choke35 View Post
Draghi in the ECB press conference:

To the best of his knowledge, the ECB will be paid by Greece on July 20th
as well as the IMF will also be paid (!).

They agreed to the conditions for the new bailout so I suppose ECB money is flowing again (which they won't be able to return in a year or two and we'll be back to square one again. Then they'll exchange even more sovereignty for money until we have the United States of Europe, without a single war nor referendum).

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #65 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 8,172 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 57,515
Thanks Received: 26,292

The ECB has announced it has increased emergency loans to 900 million Euros, "over one week," and suggested strongly that ELA will continue.

Meanwhile, there is important sentiment in Germany that Greece should just leave -- in fact, that there is really no long-term choice:


Quoting 
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, suggested on Thursday that Greece might be better off leaving the euro, saying that a temporary exit from the common currency could give the country additional flexibility to reduce its crippling debt load.
....

There has long been an influential group of German economists who argue that Greece does not belong in the eurozone and that it would be better off using its own currency. In recent days, Mr. Schäuble appears to have come around to that way of thinking.

The most vocal of those advocating Greece’s exit may be Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute in Munich, an influential economic research organization. In a statement on Tuesday, Mr. Sinn reiterated his longstanding argument that Greece should adopt its own currency, which it could devalue to make its export products and tourism industry more competitive.

“An exit is the only option,” Mr. Sinn said.

From: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/world/europe/eurozone-greece-debt-germany.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

I would not call the issue settled, although it has moved forward in the short term.

Bob.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #66 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Trading: ES, YM, 6E
Posts: 2,668 since Feb 2013
Thanks Given: 5,101
Thanks Received: 6,558


bobwest View Post
The ECB has announced it has increased emergency loans to 900 million Euros.

Meanwhile, there is important sentiment in Germany that Greece should just leave -- in fact, that there is really no long-term choice:



From: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/world/europe/eurozone-greece-debt-germany.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

I would not call the issue settled, although it has moved forward in the short term.

Bob.

From the political perspective the blocks that the Italian Finance Minister has described after the weekend
seem to lead the same way:

EMU19 - Greece = EMU18
thereof 3 countries pro Greece: France, Italy, Cyprus
and 15 countries that "had to be convinced to compromise" ...

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #67 (permalink)
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
Posts: 9,888 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 4,242
Thanks Received: 27,103


bobwest View Post
The ECB has announced it has increased emergency loans to 900 million Euros, "over one week," and suggested strongly that ELA will continue.

Meanwhile, there is important sentiment in Germany that Greece should just leave -- in fact, that there is really no long-term choice:



From: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/world/europe/eurozone-greece-debt-germany.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

I would not call the issue settled, although it has moved forward in the short term.

Bob.


I do not think that there is a contradicton between the solution adopted this week-end and an exit of Greece from the Euro area.

Greece has a highly unprofessional government, which has repeatedly insulted the countries that have already come to help Greece in the past. This has lead to an emotional debate, where the Euro - which is just a currency - has become the symbol for being part of Europe. Of course this is nonsense.

After Mr. Tsipras refused to come to an agreement with the creditors and called a referendum instead, Greece was close to economic suicide with the 4 largest banks on the brink of collapse. Under such circumstances there was no time to prepare an orderly exit from the Euro. A new currency needs to be prepared ....

Therefore immediate action was necessary to moderate the impact of the Kamikaze policies of the current government. The alternative would have been a Greccident, not a Grexit. This would probably have led to severe short term implications for the Greek population.

Now let the emotions settle down, and the work can start for a viable solution. Both Mr. Schäuble and Mr. Sinn have suggested that a Grexit might be the best medicine for Greece. A return to the Drachme would lead to a devaluation of the Greek currency and make Greek products more competitive abroad.

I am not a Neo-Keynesian, but let me cite Paul Krugman:

"Would Greek exit from the euro work as well as Iceland’s highly successful devaluation in 2008-09, or Argentina’s abandonment of its one-peso-one-dollar policy in 2001-02? Maybe not — but consider the alternatives. Unless Greece receives really major debt relief, and possibly even then, leaving the euro offers the only plausible escape route from its endless economic nightmare.

And let’s be clear: if Greece ends up leaving the euro, it won’t mean that the Greeks are bad Europeans. Greece’s debt problem reflected irresponsible lending as well as irresponsible borrowing, and in any case the Greeks have paid for their government’s sins many times over. If they can’t make a go of Europe’s common currency, it’s because that common currency offers no respite for countries in trouble. The important thing now is to do whatever it takes to end the bleeding."


Full text available here: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=stream&module=stream_unit&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=collection

It seems that Mr. Schäuble and Paul Krugman have a common idea which medicine would help. Of course, Greece would require another cut of its debt to be able to thrive again.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #68 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 8,172 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 57,515
Thanks Received: 26,292


Fat Tails View Post
I do not think that there is a contradicton between the solution adopted this week-end and an exit of Greece from the Euro area.

Greece has a highly unprofessional government, which has repeatedly insulted the countries that have already come to help Greece in the past. This has lead to an emotional debate, where the Euro - which is just a currency - has become the symbol for being part of Europe. Of course this is nonsense.

After Mr. Tsipras refused to come to an agreement with the creditors and called a referendum instead, Greece was close to economic suicide with the 4 largest banks on the brink of collapse. Under such circumstances there was no time to prepare an orderly exit from the Euro. A new currency needs to be prepared ....

Therefore immediate action was necessary to moderate the impact of the Kamikaze policies of the current government. The alternative would have been a Greccident, not a Grexit. This would probably have led to severe short term implications for the Greek population.

Now let the emotions settle down, and the work can start for a viable solution. Both Mr. Schäuble and Mr. Sinn have suggested that a Grexit might be the best medicine for Greece. A return to the Drachme would lead to a devaluation of the Greek currency and make Greek products more competitive abroad.

I am not a Neo-Keynesian, but let me cite Paul Krugman:

"Would Greek exit from the euro work as well as Iceland’s highly successful devaluation in 2008-09, or Argentina’s abandonment of its one-peso-one-dollar policy in 2001-02? Maybe not — but consider the alternatives. Unless Greece receives really major debt relief, and possibly even then, leaving the euro offers the only plausible escape route from its endless economic nightmare.

And let’s be clear: if Greece ends up leaving the euro, it won’t mean that the Greeks are bad Europeans. Greece’s debt problem reflected irresponsible lending as well as irresponsible borrowing, and in any case the Greeks have paid for their government’s sins many times over. If they can’t make a go of Europe’s common currency, it’s because that common currency offers no respite for countries in trouble. The important thing now is to do whatever it takes to end the bleeding."


Full text available here: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=stream&module=stream_unit&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=collection

It seems that Mr. Schäuble and Paul Krugman have a common idea which medicine would help. Of course, Greece would require another cut of its debt to be able to thrive again.

Indeed, and I think you have made exactly the right points. At the time of the negotiations, Greece apparently had not given any thought to returning to its own currency, and had made no preparations for it. They also did not recognize it as an option, which in practice meant that they would end up having to accept whatever terms they could get, a fact that they did not recognize until fairly late.

I think that, in fact, the only viable ending will include significant write-off of the debt, which is truly not payable, and Greece returning to its own currency and the ability to manage its own economy.

(Well, it is hard to have confidence in their ability to manage anything, , but a prerequisite would be the ability to issue their own currency, at the least.)

Bob.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #69 (permalink)
 olobay 
Montreal
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading.com
Trading: CL
Posts: 364 since Jul 2011

Save banks, but don't save a country's worth of people.

https://philebersole.wordpress.com/2015/07/13/banks-get-bailed-out-greece-doesnt/

Reply With Quote
  #70 (permalink)
 olobay 
Montreal
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading.com
Trading: CL
Posts: 364 since Jul 2011


https://consortiumnews.com/2015/07/12/secret-history-of-the-greek-crisis/


Quoting 
In fact, over the last century, almost all of Greece’s creditors – including Germany – have defaulted or “restructured” the sovereign debts at least once. Some have done so several times. As economist Thomas Piketty told the German Newspaper Die Zeit, on July 10, “Germany is the country that has never repaid its debts.”

Germany’s Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle) came about not only because of German hard work (and the contribution of immigrant labor) or even the result of about $15 billion (in today’s money) America gave Germany under the Marshall Plan. These were essential, but most economists would hold that at least as important was that, in 1953, West Germany was forgiven 50 percent of its foreign debt and allowed to “restructure” domestic debts.

Thus, the West German government was able to forge the new Germany without the burden of past debt, making it at least ironic that Germany now takes such a strong stand on Greek debt repayment. As Piketty wrote, “It has no standing to lecture other nations.” This is one “secret” that Merkel and others don’t want to remember.

And Germany was not alone. Most of the countries now lined up against Greece have handled their debts by defaulting, having their debts forgiven or devaluing their currency.


Reply With Quote




Last Updated on June 6, 2017


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts