I already have data on that from BMT users that completed our survey (navbar - Community - Survey). It's a large sample size, much larger than any poll on our home page has ever added up to. If I drill down to just users who are on cash, and look at what they report for "are you profitable", 63% say yes.
So you can see looking at just BMT is going to skew your results. Your looking at a small community of traders, most of which are very experienced, and don't represent the majority. I would venture a guess majority of traders do not use forums at all of any kind (or even know how).
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Interesting to note is that this all brokers are reporting accounts from there us branches .. all this brokers have other offices all over the world .. and also the accounts drop is mainly because of the new leverage rules by the us laws .. And introducing brokers like Atc or jade wont be counted on this list as they all are tied up with the uk branches .. as far as i am concerned this doesnt prove anything ..
If you interpret the figures correctly, you will find out that less than 20% of traders are profitable.
Winners keep their accounts longer than losers.
The winners keep their accounts longer than the losers. What you saw there, is just a snapshot for one quarter.
If you look at the total balance over 1 year, the winners are likely to be the same as they continue winning. Part of the losers have been eliminated and replaced with new losers. So if you look at all accounts over that year, you may find only 15% of winners and some 85% of losers.
Probably over 90% of all FOREX retail traders are losers.
If you extend the reporting period further to 2 or 3 years, the share of winners will likely drop below 10%, and the losers exceed 90%.
The profession is certainly happy to provide quarterly reports, as it helps to improve the figures.
Last edited by Fat Tails; October 23rd, 2010 at 03:53 AM.
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The interesting thing is that I used to work at a bank a long time ago, and we had documents we would give to customers that were in need of a loan in order to startup their own business...
I still vaguely remember what it said on that paper( bank document)
Starting a new business is very difficult. In fact about 80% of business fail.
Main reason are;
They are under capitalized
Not enough experience
Not a well laid out structure/foundation or business plan on how they would run their company
Need to account for periods when businesses does not do well/ take losses
Point I'm trying to make is that trading is no different than starting your own company. All the rules that apply to starting a business apply to trading. You need a well thought out plan, you must do your homework, keep proper accounting, need to be well capitalized, and you have a shot to be in the 20% camp...
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