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Trapped traders - a source of consistent profitability?
This is the first thread that I have started on this great futures.io (formerly BMT) forum. Like all of you, my goal is CP, consistent profitability. Right now, I am in the phase of CL, consistent losing. I think that most traders start out as losers and then give up or continue to learn, which will eventually lead to CP. It is interesting to observe that most traders start out as losers, which is a contradiction to efficient market hypothesis (=EMH). EMH actually does not allow for the existence of CL and CP. It is quite interesting to observe that if you give money to a non-trader and tell him to trade, you will notice that he will SIGNIFICANTLY lose money. This is really interesting! Another interesting thing is that all of us are in this great forum to learn new ways of taking money from each other (taking money from each other is called trading profitably).
Since futures trading is a zero sum game, the markets take money from the loser and transfer it to the winner. Trapped traders are losers. They enter a position and find out that they are on the wrong side of the market. There are some nice setups that try to exploit traders, such as 1-2-3 reversals, trader vic's 2b pattern, etc...
Now my question is whether you think if it is important to always put yourself into the situation of this trapped trader. Does it make sense to locate these trapped traders by using the Volume Ladder (Market Delta, Footprint chart)? Would it make sense to use the footprint chart to confirm the chart patterns mentioned above? Failed breakouts are one example for trapped traders. What do you think about combining these "failed" patterns with the footprint chart?
I am referring to ES. I am just sim trading. And the best of it all is the fact that I am a significant loser. That means I am losing everyday significantly. That is great. Because there must be someone on the other side who is significantly making money.
I think it is important to analyzse the ladder in combination with DOM in slow motion to turn this around...
Everyone that succeeds in becoming consistently profitable with the ES (meaning making money on daily basis with just ES) is the absolute king. Really a king!
I try to scalp for more than one or two ticks... However, my profit target does not play any role... Because I get into the loss zone very fast...
I also have to say that I enter the ES with market orders. Limit orders do not make sense in the ES market (my opinion!). The queue is very long and if you are filled with the limit order, it usually goes very fast against you...
What about you adaseb, are you a consistently profitable ES trader? Well, if I was, I would not be in this forum... I would take my daily profits and hit some chicks! ;-)
A trapped trader is only a person who does not read the action correctly. Here are some questions for you. Do you know how to negotiate a turn in price ? Do you know when price is more likely to keep going in the same direction ? Do you know if a key level is more likely to hold or break ? Do you know the answer to these basic questions ? Do you listen to the clues market is sending to you constantly ? Do you make scenarios in your head before they take place ? Can you anticipate what price is more likely to do next ? Where is price more likely to turn ? Have you got a sense of market structure ?
Today, i used this market structure as my blueprint along with Market Profile (see picture attached)
See what level price visited just prior to the close of the session at 4:15 PM EST: 1183.25, daily middle point and developing POC. Was it just pure coincidence or could we have anticipated this target ?
I trade currencies mostly but sometimes I trade the ES on a longer timeframe if a trade presents itself. But I try to go for a few points instead of a few ticks.
Never tried scalping ES yet but I think if you want to do that you need to watch the DOM and T&S carefully.
Most of the profitable ES scalpers do that. They usually use a fast platform like X trader and watch the DOM all day. However you need to be fast and usually it might to good for a tick or two.
You are right, adaseb... I think many people ignore the DOM, because it is very difficult to learn. I am planning to record a session and then to watch the Dom in combination with T&S in slow motion...
