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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Well, my hypothetical swing short would have worked better than what I got, but it was a tough market to short. It was very obvious that between ES, 6E and CL, that crude was the weaker market. It looked like it should have come down sooner, but ES would not quit today. Even into the close, and now in the Asian session, still climbing... Who knows, I do not trade ES really. Maybe all of the fear has magically gone away.
Tonight I am making an exception to trading ES, but another "lottery ticket" type trade, 1 contract, stop market set, no profit target, going down to the bar. Not like me to trade that way, but on rare occassions, the last was maybe around Christmas time, I will go for a swing overnight. Tonight is another, completely different chart pattern than last time, but I figure, twice a year is not "overtrading".
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I never said which direction, I never posted a chart, I never mentioned a chart pattern. That was not what mattered to me. I felt confident, win or lose. I am noticing some momentum in my confidence level, and that is the number I am most interested in right now.
I noticed today that I did not feel right trading 1 contract, it felt "slow". And I am typing this with a big grin. If I can get comfortable with trading size, I will possibly graduate to the next level. Would 5 years be long enough? Wil I make it when I shift into full time?
No one ever really knows anything. We make asumpations based on past experiences. can I count on my friend to pick me up at the airport? I might thnk, absolutely, I'd bet money on it.
What if he gets sick? What if he is in a car accident? What if one of his family members is? There are few, if any, absolutes.
I made my fortune before in speculation. I lost it. But, I did not have any stop losses in place. I traded without stops, and if I did have stops, they never got hit. I felt like @tigertrader, but in real estate. Trading has the similar elements of speculation, price analysis, forecasting of future values, hunting for a good value, leverage...
I started into what I did before with a $10,000 loan from my father, some insane tenacity, no real knowledge, and a dream to make $1M in 10 years or less. I got there in about 7. Mt dream included, retiring, never working again. I spent two years doing that, with a house paid for, truck, boat, etc, and $1M in the bank. And realized, I was not happy. The goal became my life, and without it, I felt lost. I went back to orlando, geared up, ready for "round 2", and made a lot of money in a short period, before it started to slide. The tenacity cost me more than anything else.Trading has taught me to drop the losers quick. It has shown me that there is always another opportunity, and it does not take that long to find it. I have learned if the market goes up, do one thing, but if it goes down, there are just as many opportunities, if I am able to believe in them.
I have learned a lot about cycles, timing, the world in general. I know more about politics, world events, currencies, marlet manipulation even, then I ever would have had an interest in before I came into this. Really, it has been an education in how the financial world works. Incredibly eye-opening. Different than I would have believed had I not experienced it.
Why is the perceived future value of oil now $85, when not that long ago it was $106? Did we not have similar trade volume buying at $106? Or selling at $85? It has little to do with reality in some ways, but everything to do with our view of it.
Was a home in downton Orlando ever really worth $250 / sf? Is it now realy only worth $100/sf? Does that question really even matter? Learning to trade has taught me to believe that it does not matter. Which way is it going is realy all that matters when it really comes down to it. When values in real estate started dropping, get out. When they start going up, get in. Who knows how long the cycles will last? But, you choose a belief, and run with it. I bought my first property in downtown for around $50/sf, and when it got to $100/sf, I passed on so many projects, because I thought it was no longer a value. It went up 150% from there. And while I did participate, the time to be aggressive was at the $100 mark, not the $200 mark. But how could you know then?
Learn to spot the turn.
There is a sweet spot in every opportunity. I have dedicated the majority of my study to finding it. I am wrong a lot. It used to cost money to get a property under contract and complete the due diligence. But I could do that 5x, and still back out of the deal before the money "went hard". We might have been looking to make $500k, and so, what is $5k in due diligence? If I can pull that mindset back into my trading, it may be the best thing I have ever done.
You could short, and I could go long, and we both could win. It depends on 1) your entry, 2) your exit, and 3) your hold time. You decide on all of those, but some have better odds than others. Meanwhile, some speak to you more than others. If you learn to listen to the right ones, you will do better. The goal is, maybe one day we both know the difference.
And there was constantly someone on the other side, someone whose views were 180 degrees from yours at that moment. You must always be "prepared" to switch. Often I will see I have lost on the short side, and suddenly realized, I am on the wrong team. Zero loyalty.
It looked like the big dipper to me , but I do somewhat understand it, and the work itself is brilliant. Not that the market always responds to brilliance, or patterns, but it never hurts to know more, and it always helps to try to see what eveyone else is seeing, especially the guys with a lot more money than us.
Believe in what you do, above all else, yes, completely. But never say never. That is a long time, and as a trader adaptability, pursuit of knowledge, expanding and contracting in your beliefs... will never end.
ES would have to settle on a local DT from further back than yesterday. I don't get ES right now though. It is on a rampage. @Deucalion stated ES was more symettrical, but to my views, the other two markets are following what I would expect, meanwhile ES is in it's own little world right now.
CL may has formed 4 very orderly waves up, and a 100% APP of W1 concides with the stop placement I mentioned yesterday for a daily swing stop placement. 88.18 - 88.34 would be the confluence zone for that move.
But, to make that run, CL needs to break the major trendline.
It went up 150% from there. And while I did participate, the time to be aggressive was at the $100 mark, not the $200 mark. But how could you know then?