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Well it looks like it I could have stuck around and had a great day to the long side.....but standing in line for two hours to vote was more important today. There's always tomorrow.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
An odd day for me. Pretty bummed about the election combined with a long bias for some reason made me second guess all my short trades even while the chart was screaming short, I still wanted to be long. Even so, I did take the short trades and had a nice day.
Trade 1
I took the short even though I wanted to be long. I got my first scale off quick, BE on the rest. I wanted long and was convinced we were at support on the higher time frames. (Don't ask) Good thing to, the silly bias saved me a stop on the rest of the position.
Trade 2
I had a short to long reversal in here. Net effect was I was down going into the long, I took my first scale and trailed out the rest. Unfortunately, this was also the entry location for the short so was managing the long knowing a short was coming.
Trade 3
Could not pull the trigger here. Having a hard time believing the shorts were actually in control. A look at the Daily chart would have convinced me otherwise but I forgot to check it ahead of time. So I missed this entire sequence. I wanted to chase it and the temptation was very strong. I finally succumbed at the LOD.
Trade 4
I sold the LOD with a level of fear I haven't experienced in a while. Basically I knew I had screwed up the short from #3 and was now more or less gambling it would continue. My only really comfort was I looked at the daily in between 3 and 4. This gave me a small degree of confidence. I got the first scale, went BE and was taken out. I knew better than to go BE but was unwilling to take a loser on what was basically a shot in the dark.
Trade 5
With price at resistance, I finally felt comfortable short. !st scale was achieved and I trailed out in the green box. My target was lower than this but getting close and so I elected to tighten stops as we got closer to my targets. Once I get close, I try to trail 2 bars back, give it some room but not to much. In this case, I was taken out.
At this point, I was pretty much done, I'd make my goal for the day, and wasn't really looking for anything else. I needed to take my kid to school and so just kinda watched while she got ready. Well it took a bit longer than I expected for her to get ready and had an opportunity to watch the chop zone.
There was the lower low, then a higher high, then a higher low, then a lower high. I decided if the higher low was broken, I'd get short.
Trade 6
The higher low was broken, I got short, first scale took a bit to get off, but it did and I started to trail the stop on the rest. First behind the swings even though they were quite small and then once price started getting close to my target, two bars back. I trailed out just as we needed to walk out the door to get my kid to school on time.
Ended up around double my average daily goal which was nice.
All that being said, I royally screwed up the opportunity at #3. This was the short I should have been looking for. The daily chart said short but I failed to look at it today.
Another mistake I made today was failing to scale in. To be fair, this is not a habit at the moment and so I've not trained myself to look for these opportunities. In fact both of my short entries were NOT primary entries, instead they were scale in opportunities off the entry at #3. I could have finished at #5's target zone with three lots instead of one. So while this was a mistake, its one I have spent three years trying not to have to do. In other words, I've done everything I could to be out before a pull back happens and then just find another trade like I did today. Instead on what was pretty certain to be a trend day, I totally forgot to look for scale in's. A three year habit is going to be hard to break I think. However, much progress has been made recently in holding winning trades a lot longer. This feels good.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
This morning I got to the computer well before my normal trading start time. The time change has me messed up which usually happens every year when we go back to daylight savings time. Since in AZ, we don't change, my start time moved up an hour but my body clock stays the same, which means a 4:30 wake up without an alarm for a 6:30 start time. I need to use this time better going forward as today I just started trading and the results were less than optimum. Going forward, I'll stay away from the computer until half an hour before the open.
Trade sequence 1
I'm calling it a sequence because for some reason, I did a few trades in here. I saw the descending trend line, ignored it, felt the base being put in but could not get a handle on what I thought price would do. Looking at the daily chart, I wanted to be short, looking at the trading chart, I wanted to be long, so I went both directions more than once. Suffice to say, this did not end well. I haven't done anything like this in a long time which goes to prove you can still make mistakes you thought you've overcome. Finally I went long after it broke above the trend line which obviously failed right away. Looking at the daily chart, I felt that if it failed right there, a good short was coming.
This sequence put me within close proximity of my daily stop.
Trade 2
Once price failed at the high end, I was pretty comfortable taking the short even though I didn't have much room in my stop. I also felt this could in fact be a really long runner, say 2-300 ticks. The gap between the entry and the stop was quite large but the momentum was strong. I had one of those feelings inside that just KNEW price was coming off, how far was anybodies guess but I figured it would be a big one. Based on that, I took off my 1st scale a bit further away, and this took some of the pressure off the rest. I held it through what for me is a deep pull back and then trailed it out at the green zone.
Trade 3
I ignored the long set up at the exit point of trade 2 and waited for the short I felt would be coming. I got in a tad early and had to set through the chop area but I made sure my stop was well out of the way and just waited it out. I should have waited for the real break but fortunately, price never really threatened my stop. Once again, I felt there might be some room to run, so moved first scale out to 50 ticks, I eventually got this but it took longer than I thought and there was an unpleasant pull back in the middle. Fortunately, I had gotten up and went to take care of a few things while this was going on. I came back to see my 50 tick 1st scale out was filled and so I trailed my stop down behind the swings and finally trailed out in the green zone.
These two trades took me from almost stopped out for the day to just a tad over my daily average. I admit the early trading was crap but I got it together enough to erase a bad day. In retrospect, There should have been only 1 and perhaps 2 trades early, a possible short stop out and a long stop out. Instead, I exercised a degree of emotion in there that lead to several smaller stops which taken together equaled more than the two real stops together. Not my best performance. I suppose this is to be expected occasionally and is what a daily max risk is for.
Once again, I did not scale into the winners at the pull back areas. This is a failure to remember instead of a failure to act. I need to figure out a way to do this when the conditions are right.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I bet wrong on the direction today. After the serious rejection and sell off on the 6th followed by an inside day, I was looking for a possible continuation of the shorts.
Daily Chart. I know the support down in the green box had been holding but there was very strong rejection at the top. Looking at it now, the two strong up days set the stage for a long rally as it broke the inside level to the upside. Didn't even see that until today. Crazy.
I postponed my arrival at the charts by an hour today to try and adjust my body clock to the later start for the open out cry session. Funny thing was, a great short set up just as I would have normally gotten to the computer. Ironic.
Trade 1
My trading day began at the very end of the shorts. Price had just come up, briefly touched the swing high and started to come come a bit. I got in, and when price failed to make a new low, I got out at BE.
Trade 2
The idea here is its counter trend, levels are broken, trend lines are broken, support is established and that should be good for a few ticks. For me, this looked like a simple pull back on the down trend and I was willing to give it a go. The pace of tape was slow and since I had a short mentality, I was nervous about being in this to long. So out at BE on this trade.
Trade 3
This is a sequence of trades. This means a short below the level and a reversal at the stop. I rarely do this but I've done it two days in a row now. While this one worked out, there were several things wrong with this sequence. First, I allowed my short bias to get me in the trade to fast. There was no actual signal to go short. That was the first mistake. Second mistake was I should have exited the second I knew I was in early. Third, I took a bit more risk than I should have. In truth, this area should have been a place to add onto the trade from trade #2.
Trade 4
In late here of course, but nevertheless, it was a legit break out trade. I was able to get my first scale off around the globex 50% level which is where I imagined the long rally would fizzle out. I held the final lot to the green zone and trailed it out one bar back as it neared this area and was taken out a few ticks shy of my overall target.
Price then did what I expected it to do, which was fail at the level. So I started looking for shorts.
Trade 5
this looked exactly the way I wanted it to look, level failures, lower highs, lower lows, the whole nine yards. I believe it was an excellent set up which just failed. I exited with a smaller loss than I would have normally because I recognized it was failing.
Trade 6
On the failure of the short, I knew it would probably run up pretty quick and so I just jumped in ala @Al Brooks and I was able to get my first profit position off but that was it. Price eventually failed and i trailed out for a small profit on the second lot.
Trade 7
This once again looked just like a short should look, lower highs, lower lows, broken levels. Once again, this failed. At this point. I was at my daily stop and done for the day.
So on a nice trend day, I lost money. Several factors contributed to this.
1. Overall short bias. While I did trade long, I did so only in the context that I thought it was a pull back and would eventually turn short. This bias enabled me to be really eager to be short and nervous about being long.
2. Trade 2 and 3 had execution errors in them. Trade 2 was moving stop to BE to soon, which had I not done this, Trades 3 and 4 would not have happened at all. Rather with a clear head, they would have been places to add to my long instead of having a losing trade.
I am going to make some revisions to my trading plan next week.
1. Reduce entry size to 1 lot to reduce risk. I've been doing ok with multiples and taking a position off at 1XR, but I think instead, I'll reduce risk by reducing size.
2. Focus on adding to winners in single lot increments up to my max size which at the moment is 3.
3. Focus on riding the trade to its logical conclusion with larger size.
4. Stop moving my stop to BE so quick. This is almost always a bad idea.
The reason for this is simple. When a trade fails, it generally fails pretty quick. But when its a winner, it can take quite a long time for it to really get going. So while the risk is largest, it seems logical to have the smallest size on.
Going in backwards like this would have produced about 70 ticks on the long for the first lot, around 55-60 ticks on the second lot and perhaps 25-35 on the third lot. Basically a $1500 trade using the smaller figures maxing out at 3 lots on at the finish. A perfectly executed scale OUT trade would be around $1000. And a stop out at the beginning would have cost me 2/3 rds less than it would have otherwise.
The only down side to this plan is the initial pull back with a single lot on. This is the battle I've fought my entire trading career. Not wanting to give up that initial push in favor of a much larger move. However, if I go into it with the idea that I must hold through it and then add when I get an opportunity, perhaps this will help.
I will trade this idea next week. If it helps I'll keep doing it. If not, then I'l revert to the old method of scaling out.
But emotionally I think I may finally be comfortable with the idea of scaling in vs scaling out.
Comments and suggestions regarding this idea are welcome.
What I traded
What I could have done.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I made a few revisions to my trade plan this weekend regarding position sizing and how it relates to risk control and adding in vs scaling out. Trade plan included stops, appropriate times and methods to add.
Not trading tomorrow. Going to the parade with my kid and hopefully teach her a bit more about the price of freedom and how expensive it really is. To bad so many take it lightly these days.
Cheers.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
This is my basic plan. The new stuff is in the second pdf. Its about scaling in. As I test this premise this week, I'll revise and update until its something I can live with.
Its not complicated nor is it really a working document I follow to the letter. I have most of it internalized at this point so no need to keep it up where I can read it. I'm afraid there's no new revelations here.
But I hope it helps.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Arrows are actual entries, triangles are what could have been better entries. Each entry was one unit (right now thats one lot) Target zones are price action based.
This went pretty well. However, I could have done a much better job with the entries. I over thought the entries to much instead of just going with the lower risk ones. I'll do better with it tomorrow.
Overall, I like this scaling in a lot better than scaling out although to be honest, I did both today. But the exits were predetermined. Much less stress in the beginning when the risk is highest.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
