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Today my setup for GG evolved too fast, Therefore i concentrated on CLF.
CLF made my day. But my entry was not very skilled. I wanted to short on bid but the traded price run away therefore i had to enter again on the bid which made my price bad i also realized too late that my first order was not filled. Ok anyway the trade resulted in a acceptable profit of 61 Ticks. Having made a bad fill the trade was not very easy on the psychological side. During the first running against my stop i had to say to myself again and again that the double top with a lower second top will work out even if the price action is evolving very slow.
My profit target was the 15 min 20MA in green.
But right now it seems the price is still running down.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Today i revised my stocks watch list.
In my opinion it is better to trade stocks between 15 and 50$. The other criteria can be seen in my attachement.
Those are just to ensure that the stock i use for day trading have enough average volume to deliver clean movements during the day session. A, ABX, AIG, BBY, BMY, C, CBS, CLF, CRM, DFS, EWZ, FAZ, FCX, GDX, GG, HAL, HTZ, JCP, LEN, LOW, M, MET, MRK, NEM, OIH, PHM, POT, TNA, TZA, VLO, WAG, WMB, XIB
I dropped GE VXX RIO even if they were found by my filter. They had to much Gaps or showed a long period in history with only small ATRs.
For Tomorrow I would prefer the long side. The S&P has made 2 days on the short it is time for a reaction up.
The stock I see on long are:
CLF seems to be a good long because it is in a longterm sideways range and made two down days.
HAL because it is near a previous swing low at 41,37 to 41,60 as an entry zone
I will change to favor BMY instead of HAL, because it is possible for that stock to reach the MA 50 daily for a long entry point.
LOW is also near an old swinglow by 49,43
The short options are
MET if it can test the todays intraday high at 45,90 it is a sell.
ABX and GG as trend continuation, if they open with a gap the testing of the open should be happen before 10:00 EDT and this is my short entry condition.
I entered a short trade even if I thought that the broad market will go up.
If i had followed my plan i maybe would have taken a long trade and got stopped out anyway.
But that does not matter, I entered a short for MET and got stopped out with 15.5 Ticks minus.
My entry was very early so today I had a lack of patience which lead to not stick to the plan of today.
Therefore I had to take a cold shower.
For Monday I have focused on the following Stocks.
Long
1. Both GG and NEM made very large bullish candles on friday, this can lead to a trend continuation on monday.
2. BMY is near the MA50 if it touches there it can react to the upside.
Short
1. JCP looks like a good short because it is near its MA50 on the downside if it touches this it may react very hard to
the downside.
Breakout Mode in both direction
The Last 3 days in CLF look like a triangle if a breakout comes above it will be a good long else a good short.
But i favor the breakout on the upside this seems to be more likley respecting that CLF had ben fallen very long.
1. Ok let`s start with the good. I managed to make a profit. And I followed my predetermined plan but
2. The Bad I could have made more out of that trade. During the session
I made a decision to exit after the first leg of the movement. I definitly told me to hold
the position just before the close. But I could not stand the counterreaction.
I should really find a solution for that. Multiple exits would be one solution I play with in my brain.
But it is not my strategy, my strategy should be to hold a trending day and that was what I have seen
in JCP should be played until the end. But I still exited to early. This early exit made me loose about 20 Ticks.
Right now i only made 33 Ticks.
3. The Ugly My PC crashed during my position was open, it could be recovered very fast and prevented my maybe to exit without a profit. But that should not be happen again. During the crash I was not very afraid because my stop was placed at the broker. But still this event caused may Platform to display only the actual day after the PC was recovered.
At first I just started to use the DDRL formula as I found it in the book from Robert Deel.
My understanding was that it is calculated by the following approach.
Number of Wins/Number of Losses * (AverageWin /AverageLoss )*(Cumulative Win)/(Cumulative Loss)= DDRL
But this can be simplified to ((Cumulative Win)/(Cumulative Loss))^2 .
After reading again some articles to that it turns out that the understanding of Deel was that just
the (Cumulative Win)/(Cumulative Loss) represents the DDRL measure.
Having values above 1 would increase the squared DDRL as I used it in favor of taking higher risk.
Therefore I have recalulated my DDRL for the first period using just the ratio between cumulative win and cumulative loss. This will lead to a DDRL of 1.27 it is definitly over one but much smaller as the original one.
For the next decisions I will use the non squared version, because in that case it just seems harder to reach values above 2 or even 3 which will lead to a doubling or triplicating of my position size.
It is my target to reach a high ratio and a ratio of 2 should be possible.
It is friday tomorrow and today was a holiday also the day before was only a have day.
For long entries I have the following stock on my watchlist.
1. BBY it is right now in an triangle after an sharp up move, maybe it will open with an breakout
showing a continuation possibility.
2. AIG is near it`s MA daily at the low side so it reverses there maybe.
Short Setups
1. LOW made a kind of a topping formation, if it tests the 2day high it can be a good short.
2. WMB could be a good short candidate by a test of the MA 20 daily
For both directions
1. CBS it looks like it was in an triangle but started to breakout yesterday. But a reversal can be possible, too.
If it opens at yesterdays open or low I would go long anyway.
