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Ok, just thought it would be healthy for me to share my trading performance, what went into my decision making at the time, and of course, the outcome. Like many here, I have tried a multitude of systems and indicators over the course of 10 years in futures trading. My thread title is derived from Van Morrison's brilliant tune about his own personal spiritual journey, and I have found myself thinking these very thoughts when I peruse futures.io (formerly BMT) or other sources. Useful as futures.io (formerly BMT) is, I think we can all agree there is definitely a shortcut mentality among futures traders. Indeed, I was one of them. A couple of years ago I just threw it all away. The indicators, the garbage, everything. The only indicators on my NT chart are RSI, Swing, and Pivots. The best indicators I have are common sense and experience.
I'm not an expert. Never will be. If there are any I can't seem to import their experience and tendencies and make them my own. Maybe some people can do that, but I know I can't. So this is more about what I can do, which is all about making very simple inferences about the market and acting on them. We'll see where it takes me.
About my approach: I act on the 5 minute chart (ES, TF, NQ), and will also look at the cash chart as well. Prior to trading, I consider the daily cash charts- mostly to confirm trend and to see if there any trend lines I should be aware of on cash. In general, if we're above the pivot on ES, I want to look for longs at support, a pivot, or prior resistance. Vice versa below the pivot. The cash chart is really there to let me know where potential s/r may be once I am in a trade. I generally only trade during U.S. cash market.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Went long NQ at 6:45 AM. Bullish divergence on RSI as price hit the pivot at 3019 and began to bounce off. Stop is manageable 2 ticks below swing support at 3018. Target is swing resistance at 3025. I generally don't trade NQ premarket but the risk is quite low for this trade.
**Stopped out for 6 tick loss at 17.50. Was worth a shot.
My small loss on the NQ notwithstanding, my view on the day is that the market is in a parabola. It's possible that today (or some other day this week), the market will reverse, possibly severely. The daily market trend does matter- it affects trader psychology. When you are in a strong uptrend, the pivot is more likely to hold, obviously. This uptrend is long in the tooth by anyone's measurement. Just want to give myself a mental break and acknowledge that we could see a trend change in the near future, and that could mess with a few trades. I control the risk so this is the market's problem, not a trading problem.
Observing the market holding at ES pivot, but the price is below recent support. Maybe we bounce from here, but I can't buy the market below swing support.
ES still holding above the pivot into the close. No trades other than the failed NQ trade prior to the open. Rear view, armchair QBing- I missed the ES long, really should have used swing support as my stop.
