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Part of the reason I am doing this journal is to try to objectively evaluate this style of trading( I call it micro scalping) since I have never traded like this before.
Today is the first day I really have had where I question how well it will perform in certain market conditions..
Today we had high volatility, quick moves, and straight line legs with few pullbacks. In order to keep my risk as close to 1:1 as I can , I refuse to start with any risk of greater than 6T when looking for a 4T target. I really need a 4T or so stop and most of the time I have been able to do that. Today there just were not many valid setups where I could get a 6T or less stop and take a trade.. So I sat there and watch most of the action go without me which was very frustrating.
This method has worked very well in lower volatility periods and periods of tight range bound trading, but has some real limitations(for me anyhow) in these kind of markets with higher volatility. I am just not going to take a trade with a 1:2 R:R.. Been there.. done that.. The math kills me..
An obvious solution to this is to accept the larger stops and accept the larger targets that go with it to insure I have at least a 1:1... It looks like looking for 4T target in a trade and then backing into my stop is ass backwards. Maybe I need to accept the risk that the market is providing based on the volatility and then adjust the target accordingly for each of my setups assuming they make sense with all trades having at least a 1:1 R:R. This means today I would have had many more trades with targets larger than 6T most of the time and stops greater than 6T most of the time. THere goes the title of this journal.. 1 point at a time.. Already shedding that idea...
Just documenting some of my thoughts and thinking out loud.
I have done it sporadically in the past and decided to do it this week since I am trying to evaluate this method and myself.. A big part of recording myself is so I can articulate to myself what is going on with the market. If I cannot articulate it, I probably do not understand it and should not trade.. I had a mentor once that said I should do this daily like I was teaching a class.
Today I knew clearly what was going on with the market and felt the urge to chase.. put on the trade a couple of times behind the market and then pulled it when I said to myself "out of plan trade", which is the kiss of death for me. Immediately quit trading.
Hope this helps.
Wolf
PS.. I may share part of one of my recordings later in my journey for forum amusement..
Thanks for your reply,it would be great if you can post some of those recordings
Just something to think about, today was a highly unusual day by my standards, you seem to be doing great on other days, so I wouldn't throw away your strategy because of one day that is very rare.
And even today, there were opportunities Of 1:1 r:r. I think the problem today was that it's very hard psychologically to sit there and look for one point trades while Market is running many points back-and-forth. It's the FOMO, perhaps?
And if volatility increases, you can try to increase both, risk and reward, from one point to let's say one and half points. I just find it difficult to do.
I may change my mind by tomorrow... but as I am trading this methodology, something just not sitting well with me about trading a less than 1:1 method.. And with a 4T-6T stop on many days.. trades get harder to find...So think I am going to make some further adjustments to incorporate that into my strategy.. Right now on larger that normal stops, I have the following options:
1. Pass on trade
2. Buy/Sell with a limit order that makes my R:R acceptable
3. Use a lower time frame to get a better R;R
Passing on trades just means I do not trade and I am not in this to be a market watcher.. No trade.. no exposure and chance to make $$. I have been primarily been using option 2 but days like today even it does not work well.
Going to add another option that will allow me to take trades with larger stops and targets where minimum R:R is 1. Just look at Mack's video for today. Many (if not most) of his trades had to have large stops (by my standards) when entered and therefore larger targets.
I fully anticipate more BE trades doing this since I will not let a 5T winner that I am shooting for 6T turn into a loser.
Mismanaged several of the trades on entry and exit. Took an out of plan trade immediately after first loser as a revenge trade . IT was luckily a winner, but this has been my worst problem.. Taking a revenge trade immediately after a loser to get back my loss. Missed a trade later in the day and called it quits.
About all I can do with this style of trading is 2-2.5 hours due to concentration needed. After that, start getting fairly careless.
That's my problem as well. I'm trying to figure out how to handle it. One idea I have is to walk away from the screen after a losing trade. I'm going to try that.
Since out of system trades are random, you should identify the criteria that you are using to justify the trade, and test it either back or forward. The negative expectancy should present itself quickly and discourage you from that habit when you acknowledge the fact that it is not a winning behavior. Generate proof and put it in front of you as a reminder. I have done that so many times that now after a losing trade, if my strict entry criteria is not met, I just wait it out for my next setup. I have found that the more defined the methodology and setup, the easier it is to wait for the next one after a losing trade.
"If you call yourself stupid often enough, you'll begin to believe it, eroding your self-esteem. That could lead to making more trading mistakes.
Try this. Visualize a black-and-white picture of your negative thoughts, one so vivid that you cringe when you imagine it.
Picture of a lizard.
Now picture the reward of trading success. This image should be in color and rich with detail. The more intense and real you can make it, the better this will work.
In your mind, place the black-and-white image beside the color one. The color one should be larger, brighter, with more contrast and the black-and-white one should be postage stamp size, dull, and gray. Draw a diagonal black line through the black-and-white image with a circle around it.
Whenever you feel like seeking revenge, pull up these two images. Reflect on what they mean, focusing on the rewards you can gain by following your trading rules and recognizing that losses are just the cost of doing business.
By comparing the two images, you can help persuade your mind that seeking revenge will not lead to trading success. If others tell you how damaging your personality traits are, imagine how happier they and you will be when you correct them. Correcting them can be as simple as realizing that one path leads to success and riches and the other leads to stress and unhappiness. The choice of which path to take is up to you."
-- Thomas Bulkowski
You can practise your skills all day long, but it's comparatively easy to get better at playing. The hard thing is to get better at winning--anonymous
I have been all of over the place over the years with the amount of detail I should have in my trading plan.. Finally came to the conclusion that if my plan was not very specific I could not evaluate it and its edge or my effectiveness in trading it. I fought doing this for a long time mainly because it is so hard to put into writing a solid trading plan with a lot of detail. In talking with a lot of other traders and my own personal experience, a great majority of traders skip putting together a detailed trading plan.
My goal with my trading plan now is to have setups I can easily see(as described in detail) at the hard right edge and have specific rules for entry. At least now when I have an out of plan trade, I know it clearly does not fit my plan as described by my rules and can catch myself(hopefully). In some times in the past, there was so much grey area in my trading plan, it really wasn't clear whether it was my trading plan edge and lack of detail or my psychology.. As I have tightened up my trading plan(always a work in progress) , I can work on the psychology aspects of my trading and less on the plan itself.
