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On the BE+1, I agree, I do that a lot as well. You trade with less indicators than I do, so I wait for my indi's to say 'bail' before I just let it run. The good run will come!
I don't trade on % of account etc.. I just use more of a base ATR, so if market is moving slow, I use 8 ticks on CL and tighten quickly, or if fast 11 ticks (that is why I wondered how you came up with that). Or, most times I just find the top and if my indi's say down, then I will just put it at the top + 1 or 2 ticks and see if it knocks me out.
CL is nice. I am just DEMO on CL and today picked up about +26 ticks or so. My NT simulator doesn't quite function properly on NT7 (what a surprise haha..), but CL is pretty easy to scalp compared to ES or others.
I responded as well. Thanks.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I was thinking about scalping too. Yesterday I walked away with 4 ticks out of 5 trades. Instead of moving to BE+1 at 8 ticks, I could have just taken the 8 and been up 40 ticks on the day.
Had real bad internet issues this morning. Took 1 trade for 20 ticks, then moved to sim and got another 16. Then my connection got so bad I just gave up even watching.
Not much to report today. I was having some bad internet issues early this morning. I run NT and TOS side by side, and both were crapping out on me so I knew the problem was somewhere in my office.
Trade #1
Price moving sideways under the EMA with the recent morning trend down. This was the same trade I was afraid of yesterday, so instead of trying to catch it on the downside, I placed a stop at 80.95 after the lower high at 05:45 which was 2 ticks below the open of that bar. Got filled at 05:50 then lost my internet connection. It came back a minute later and I was stopped out with a gain. +20 ticks.
Being in the market without an internet connection spooked me, so I switched to sim.
Trade #2
Entered a short stop order 2 ticks below the 06:15 bar, was filled and caught most of that bar down. +16 ticks.
After this, my connection became so unstable that I gave up. I had rebooted everything that ran on electricity in my office, but no luck. I think I missed the whole 07:40 bar. It was around 10am PST when it looked like I was back up, but I just watched after that.
My first trade today made me realize that I don't really understand my trailing stop strategy. What I think it should be doing is moving me to BE +1 when I get 8 ticks (which it does), then move me to +10 ticks when I have +15 (which it does), and to +15 when I have +20 ticks (which it does). What I don't understand is how I ended up with a 20 tick trade when my target was set to 25 ticks. In order to get my stop moved to 20, it had to hit 25, and I should have been filled and out at 25 ticks.
Tried something a little different today. I modified my auto trailing stop to just go to +10 when I have 20 ticks, then the goal was to manage the stop bar by bar. I also changed my target from 25 ticks to 35 ticks, and monitored the 1 minute chart.
Premarket was up, so was looking to rejoin the trend. Got a sell signal at 04:50, but it was against the trend and too close to the EMA for me, so I just watched. Missed another sell signal after the close below the EMA. The big outside doji was a stop sign for me, and the next 4 bars were barbed wire.
A double bottom formed at 06:10, then price started a climb up.
Trade #1
After the close above the EMA, I used the 1 minute chart to time an entry. After 20 ticks, the auto trail kicked in and then I was stopped out. +10 ticks.
Price got very whippy after that, and it wasn't until the lower highs started forming after 07:15 bar that I was looking to get back in.
Trade #2
Still lots of overlapping bars, but except for the outside bear bar at 07:30, each bar formed a LL and LH. Again I used the 1 minute chart to time an entry. Got 20 ticks, then stopped out as the auto trail kicked in. +10 ticks.
The next 3 bars were overlapping, and I decided to take the rest of the day off from trading.
After looking at how the day progressed, and the fact that I was stopped out on 07:50 by 3 ticks right before a 200 tick move was kind of exciting. Obviously I need to work more on the mental part of this, because even if I held on to that short at 82.15, I'm sure I would have gotten out on the 08:00 bar retrace and not rode it all the way down, so it really wouldn't have mattered.
I hope all you better traders out there raked it in!
This is good stuff. I stayed out of the CL today because it seemed 'choppy' like the TF, but your charts seem so less choppy! haha..
One thing that you can do is instead of the 1 timeframe if you want more points, like you did with the 1M for entry, then maybe have a 3rd chart up with say 30M or 15M or even 1HR?
I think the key for long rides is you have to be willing to give up 200 ticks to make 200 ticks. There are also some really good ways to decide on your exit and not think about money or ticks. Like an ATR break (SuperTrend for example) or a trendline break, or an MA break (like the one you have on your chart, or a BB middle band touch or whatever.
If you just took a short on your trade and exited when it touched the EMA, then man, you would have had a very nice run.
I realize you have thought of these, but sharing some ideas that I have used in the past. The challenge with trading is most people (beginners) think it is all about the entry. In my opinion, it is mostly about the exit! So, I believe my entries are plenty good most times when market trends, however, my exits suck. haha...
The exits are REALLY hard. It's tough to watch profits evaporate. My long term thought has always been to trade 2 contracts, take the quick 10 - 15 ticks with the first, move the 2nd to BE +1 and let it ride. Easier said than done.
I am definitely focusing more energy now on understanding S/R levels and trying to have a clue as to where to exit.
Yes, you can see that with your eyes. Or a simple MP type indicator, but not sure on the value. For me, it flies through those areas about 50% of the time, so I don't see the point.
I debate on 2 contracts as my mentor taught me to do what you did.
contract #1 scale out at a certain criteria, MA cross, trendline etc.. (not just ticks)
contract #2 exit when you would take the opposite direction trade
I was jumpy today. I figured the market was heading short, but seems like it hasn't been going till later when I am done trading.
I took a quick look at some of my past trades, and there were at least 3 100+ tick moves that I was in a position for if I had not exited until a cross of the EMA. Interesting...
I'm taking today off - no trading for me. Not even sim. Have a good weekend.
Thanks! Yes, I think the key is understanding maybe something that is telling you that it could be a big run. Hitting pivots is never easy, but due to the way CL moves, it doesn't take a whole lot to get lucky! haha..
I created an automated strategy in NT about 8 months ago that used SuperTrend. If the plane was broken, I went short, if it came back, exit then long etc..
It was very profitable when the CL trended and through backtesting it was unprofitable as the CL ranged during certain periods of time for extended periods. I am somewhat new to CL (10 months), so I don't know the landscape on why/when, but anyways, you are right! You can get some huge runs!
I am part of a group of traders and I see those guys clearing 120, 140 ticks a day off the same trades that I take. They have been doing it a couple years longer and they tell me it just takes time. I think I also have a different personality type, but you seem like a patient enough guy to make it happen.
Have a great weekend and maybe we will finally get some nice sun!
Made a couple of non-fatal mistakes today. Otherwise, a decent day. I decided to drop the auto trail stop, but kept the BE +1 move after 8 ticks. I changed my target back to 25 ticks.
The overnight session was starting to give back some of its gains, so I wasn't sure which way things were going. The big outside bull bar at 04:50 started a run back up to the EMA with a close above the EMA. The recent trend was still down, so I wasn't too eager to go long at this point.
The next 8 bars just chopped around the EMA as it started to flatten and turn up.
Trade #1
After the big bull bar at 05:55, I looked at the 60 min chart, which was still up and had just come off its EMA. Then I looked at the 1 min chart for an entry and went long at 82.50. Resisted the urge to lock in 10 ticks (yay). +25 ticks.
After the run, price moved in a 35 tick channel for over an hour. I saw the triangle forming and knew these things usually break to the flat side, but it was too close to the EMA for me. Turns out this did break to the flat side after all.
In hindsight, I see the double top price made at the HOD, and the first bar of that triangle I drew was a lower high. That, along with the price topping out at 83.19 was a sell signal that I should have obeyed.
There was another short signal at 07:55, after the failed attempt to recross the EMA. This was just above the open of the day, and for some reason I was ascribing mystic support properties to it, so I passed on another winning trade.
I hunkered down to wait for a pullback to enter the trend.
Trade #2
After the failed attempt to cross the EMA, followed by a trend bar, I entered an order near the pullback trend line and got a great fill. After 8 ticks, I went to BE+1 where I was taken out right before the move down. +1 tick.
I wasn't paying enough attention to see the other, better opportunity to short that leg on the very next bar after I was stopped out.
Overall I played on the conservative side. Right now I'm still more afraid of losing a trade than I am eager for a winner. Hopefully this frame of mind will relax over time. I remember reading somewhere that small, consistent wins builds confidence.
