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Grade C. I had clear instructions to scale in after Trend change and ONH test but too cautious and stayed small. If I did, could have scaled out Y-C, an ideal target.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,742 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,438
Thanks Received: 3,012
Another exciting chapter
I just started learning coding 'pine script in tradingview' to do some basic back-testing.
Though my service provider investiquant provides backtesting results (for a hefty fee) and I like it a lot, there is a big drawback. The data starts from 2003 only.
Under usual circumstances i.e Bull market, that's good enough for me. But many experts are beginning to compare the current market to dot.com bubble (this time it may be crypto) and hence likely to drag on for another 6 to 12 months. It's a shame that that particular bear market ended by 2003 and not captured by my dataset. I'm predominantly using 2008 bear market data + other 3 other brief contractions since then including Covid period. I don't want to compare apples to pears
Extreme bearish projection for our current market is the 70's inflation era and Volker style quantitative tightening leading to 73-74 bear market.
Hence, I want a more representative sample of data going back to 1970. I was surprised to learn that trading view offers this (basic) data for free with some back-testing capabilities too. That's good enough for me currently, I think. If there are any better ideas for someone who never coded before, I would be very interested to hear.
Learning curve is going to be steep, but I'm excited.
Expected a bounce to VAH to short again but price going down without me.
If ONL is taken out, tempting to go short breakout but bit concerned to that Friday before long weekend. However, data is not bullish for long weekend. May try it. Will see.
Good day @Narcissus
"Do professional traders backtest?
Professional traders don't back test their strategies because it doesn't really tell them how their ideas perform or operate under live conditions and present market activity. What seems like a logical first step to trading is really just testing how the market traded in the past. GOOGLE 20 Oct 2011"
Well I did - a decade ago. With expensive costs for data.
What did i learn? I am a statics expert from University in Basle. But this data (on my experiment the DAX) was nothing to predict anything. Not intraday or for swing trading.
It was a time using job with no result. So finally I skipped it quickly.
Thus my strategies - based on very different length of bullish and bearish cycles focused to see behavior of traders in the main markets when seeing strong numbers speeches or other information that drive the markets with volumes and volatility.
Seen this I could easily find my patterns (based on weekdays) to make just ONE trade per day. Omitting the overnight risk and costs.
Ok to scale in to a loser - Line in the sand -3805.
If strong momentum to the downside, then scale in to the winner @ vwap.
P.S. My postings will be brief from next week as returning back to full-time work for 6 weeks. Then I will be trading full time for the next 5 months. Hurray.
