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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,745 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,441
Thanks Received: 3,020
Sleeping in the right position
Overnight hold has been my goal for few months now with minimal success so far. Ideally I want to be flat when I'm sleeping. However, I'm aware than I'm missing big opportunity here and if I can manage my emotions, then I can enter the next league of traders.
The way I'm doing this is by following these 3 principles.
1. Just 1 contract max.
2. Hold only winning trades. (breakeven trades are allowed only if momentum i.e EMA crossover, is in favor)
3. Ideally some stats to support.
Here is the stats bit.
In the last 20 years, when we had intra-day higher close but it's a lower close from previos day, i.e RTH +ve but ETH -ve, it's profitable to go short @ next day RTH open. The profit factor is a respectable 1.4 (sample size over 400) which persists for all market conditions.
The only caveat is that gap up is still more likely than gap down and hence overnight position can be under water when I'm starting tomorrow.
P.S. This bearish force is clashing with the bullish force of GDP report days tomorrow and hence the actual result can be bit muted. Hence, I have to give more weight to current price action and won't hesitate to go flat or reverse in this (mildly) bullish short term market structure.
If ONH of 3868 is taken out, I have to reconsider my thesis for this short.
Not sure whether I want to go long in that scenario with a hope of retest of 3900 yet. I thought Sellers made their intention quite clear yesterday and we haven't tested the buyers below 3800 yet.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,745 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,441
Thanks Received: 3,020
Adding to a winning trade is one of the most difficult skill to master.
My short trade idea seems to be working as Y-L was quickly taken out. Scaled in @ 36.
However, this was not aggressive scaling with breakout but rather during the bounce. I can see that sellers are struggling to push below 25. Tight leash?
Not sure what the overall mood is as bonds, usd and vix are all fairly quiet.
Edit - I spoke too soon Buyers pushed it up back to vwap quickly and forcefully. Still keeping my short as we are still in LL LH mode.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,745 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,441
Thanks Received: 3,020
Back to where we started.
Scale in position took a hit of 15 pts. ES moved from ONL to ONH rather quickly. Since the actual range is only 35 points, I can ignore and hold tight but the volume strength during the up move is concerning.
Will be flat if price is accepted above 65 and will consider long.
Despite being right on the overall direction of the market, so far struggled with locations to scale in/out. This is due to my miscalculation that today will be a trendy but it's turning out to be range bound with downward bias.
Will start taking profits if it moves down toward 3800 ( or my losses if a trip back to vwap again with price acceptance).
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,745 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,441
Thanks Received: 3,020
Wrap up.
I cannot believe that I kept shorting ES today on a down day yet breakeven at close.
Very poor entries mostly because of stop entries @ new lows rather than limit entries during the bounces. Felt very choppy and somewhat slow after the recent 2% intraday swings and clean trend.
However, recency bias of choppy/ rangey move from yesterday was still fresh in my mind and once ONH was taken out, I got out pre-maturely @ 3833. Though the plan was to add on PB, that is yet to happen. Will get in @ 20s again despite risk of another range day and revisit to 3800.
30 pts in 30 mins. Yet, could have been & should have been 50.
. However, I'm aware than I'm missing big opportunity here and if I can manage my emotions, then I can enter the next league of traders.
