2024 Dragon

April 29th, 2024, 03:55 PM

so the flat behavior is a coin-flip / decision-making branch

and seeing that we pointed lower on several indexes

we choose to err on the side of caution

//

that said looking at ultra t bonds they seem based

add to that a possibility of a twist operation

to tame short term for mid term easing

//

the second part is the china effect

seeing copper soy and fxi

while yen and ewj tilt

//

and finally the dollar

commodities fading

to curb inflation

April 30th, 2024, 12:59 PM

dollar strength makes the carry and vs yen or even cad

energy is slumping and things pointing lower

will watch vol as yields maintain higher

May 1st, 2024, 12:06 PM

usd/chf seems to be a decent dollar strength proxy maybe usd/mxn

having a harder time with usd/cad even with energy pressure

dollar basket is also buffered by eur and jpy crosses

//

retraces abound but expectations have poised instruments

something pivotal could transform outlooks

the trend yield-wise remains however

May 2nd, 2024, 03:06 PM

waiting on nfp, but the general action is still constrained from fomc

especially with a lower gamma with the roundtrip yday into today

dollar weakness possibly vs trend and really positioned to react

//

could just wait as well, the safest strategy

May 3rd, 2024, 10:14 AM

knee jerk post event and wait to see if there is continuation

standard unknown factors beforehand to be digest afterward

carry, fx are less enthused and rest is bouncy / flat save yields

May 6th, 2024, 10:42 AM

late 2023 saw support breaks of top half carries vs jpy

observable long term on gbp, euro, nzd but only mid term aud, cad, chf, mxn

so the dollar basket is 50/50 balanced by crosses until the mid term catches up

//

the commodity linked fx like aud and cad are confirmed by metals and energy

resistance broke in late 2023 for crude and gold as well but not silver

the concerning part is that vol broke in 2020 fading ever since

//

short term vol did breach support but is now just hovering

mid term vol has not had conviction to breach lower

bonds broke out prior to breaching support

//

the mag7, part of qqq is the safety still

even this mid term broke support

so a pullback prior possibly

May 7th, 2024, 02:41 PM

say the dollar either weakened or got stronger

the net change for indexes vs dollar would be a wash

however waiting for dips could take advantage of such adjustments

May 8th, 2024, 02:09 PM

looks like the dollar is stable, pushing mild strength

stable is the key word along with rates and yen

last thing to check is the mag 7 comp

//

earnings checked out, even with a dip reaction

ongoing recovery w/ consumer based names

tech has also been able to maintain strength

//

dip is awaiting

May 9th, 2024, 11:05 AM

well, strength on what should be weakness

including carries so slow accumulation

also keep in mind buyback season

//

watchin energy don't wanna ev yet

May 13th, 2024, 11:21 AM

so european side carry broke earlier late last year

while the asian side more recently offering further tailwind

vix and yields are stuck as well as energy, dollar too, crypto minor

//

gme recently burst after being undervalued but still under pressure

2024 Dragon

Discussion in Trading Journals

2024 Dragon