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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,048 since Dec 2013
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If you don't use leverage buy'n'holding the equity markets has been a pretty profitable trade for a very long time. Not saying markets don't go down, they might go down a lot in the near future, but I'm in the Buffet et al camp that in 5 years time equity markets will be higher than where they are now.
Trade with the trend. Even in a down day, week or even month you gotta remember YOY... Decade over decade, the trend has been bullish. But I don't hold for weeks months or years, so I'm short often times, that doesn't mean I forget the big picture.
I could have said either Permabull or Neither, but decided on bull. It could have been "Neither," because you've got to be flexible. But my overall expectation will stay bullish until there is good reason to change.
For one thing, just in terms of this curent market, it's always a sucker bet to go against the basic trend. Sure, price goes up and down, and sometimes you should take the other side, but if we're talking about the current bull trend, it is always going to be very hard to pick the top -- usually the top pickers will get their heads torn off. (Same for bottom pickers in bear markets.) So right now -- and as long as this bull market lasts -- I will assume that it's still BTFD time. That doesn't mean never go short, but as to the overall trend, yes, I will assume a continuing bull market.
I will be wrong at some point and will have to switch, but probably will be wrong less, and for less money, than the permabears.
Now, if we're not talking just about "this" bull market, but "the market" in general, I notice that it has been going up for a very long time, and so the above argument applies there, too.
Use to be a doom monger, looking for the piece of evidence that would enforce my theory of the financial world was coming to a terrible end, found it so easy to be short. Then eventually I mellowed after the events from the subprime and the global melt down, after selling it nearly the whole of 07, when we all new about Fanny Mae in March.
The S&P finished up that year, then first week in January an(US) ISM figure came out good/bad, but it got sold off from that point.
Then when the market did unfold and banks creeked, governments became the last resort of lender, Sovereign funds, Warren Buffet, then I realized, that I was invested in this monetary aesthetic system, we need this to keep on working.
Although we have problems at the end of the day, we want, no!we need it to work and the governing bodies, all the major powers are all invested, occasionally they are blind sided and leads to a healthy correction, They react slowly but surely and another piece of genius accounting is done and the whole thing shuffles on, thankfully.
Police needs to be paid, Bins need collecting, street need lighting, basic order.
Greece being the latest example, of decent society unraveling, from an accounting perspective that deal should not of been done.
In the 80's not sure they had the imagination for accounting then and we probably wasnt as interlocked financially like we are all now.
Money is a token, its paper, obviously the game for most people is to amass as much money as possible, but this man made aesthetic system is bigger than the titanic, if it goes down, we wont be able to enjoy our hard earned gains from being short more than likely.
So when Zero Hedge and Roubini pipes up on the way down, they tell you as it is and it seems like such good sense, because it probably is.
Warren Buffet has invested long term, listened to him, he step in bought Insurance companies, when no one wanted them, realized they are a fabric of a rational society etc etc
Bear turned Bull, its in our best interest in the long run!
I put a little cash to work during this pullback buying Kimberly Clark and adding to my Disney. Though I sold OXY, I put the funds in VLO and TSO. And I traded a high div ETF for hedged Japan and hedged European ETFs.
So I viewed this pullback as a buying opportunity.
I am definitely a bull on the stock market.
Microsoft raised dividend today!
I answered the last poll "I did not expect a rate hike at the September meeting" even though the Fed should. But I now Iwould not be surprised by a small rate increase.
The problem with trading is one needs to be right twice!
