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From my trading journal, after the trade. My personal reflections on the nature of trading and the process, prompted by today's PA.
I REALLY did not feel like taking the trade. It seemed to
me that the market wasn't going to do much on the long side, and sharply reverse down.
My opinion isn't worth anything.
Trading consistently is.
And that's trading. Putting on the trade when the conditions are met, and taking off when it's time to exit.
Did I know that the market was going to do this? Not at all.
Did I have the feeling it was going to be like this? No.
Trading is not about feeling, or guessing, or trying to outsmart the market.
It is about executing a strategy that has a long-term edge.
I FINALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT TRADING IS.
It is not thinking or bluffing or outsmarting. (though many traders think that)
It is execution, patience, and discipline, in the context of each trade having an uncertain outcome.
Trading is NOT KNOWING and ACCEPTING RISK WHEN YOU HAVE AN EDGE.
You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
Three pushes up, progressively weaker, with the last one being a trend channel line overshoot. And indeed we got a good reaction down to the EMA... Could the market continue going straight down (like couple of days ago) after making new recent highs? Absolutely. And that's the point:
1. Nobody really knows.
2. To make $ you don't have to know.
More often than not, it will bounce in this spot. That's the edge.
Sometimes, it will not. That's the uncertainty on each trade.
Embracing both is trading.
You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
I thought I did too:
"Trading is not about feeling, or guessing, or trying to outsmart the market."
I would add to that:
Trading is NOT about making sure the current trade is a winner.
I know that will sound strange to lot of people. They think it is all about that. In reality, we have no power to make sure the current trade ends in profit. And the attempts to do that sometimes end in disasters (blows accounts...etc.). If you are trying to force your open trade to be a winner, you will ignore your stop, average your loss, and make all kinds of other significant mistakes.
Not preaching here, just speaking from experience.
You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.