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"Using the Machina platform, we have developed a machine learning model that does a fairly good job of predicting broad, intraday trends of the US financial markets. The Challenge is to improve our model. The metric we have used internally is the same one we will use for the Challenge: how well does the model predict the intraday movements of SPY".
For $100k, I might be persuaded to pick up that old machine learning book again
The website doesn't load for me so I can't see all the details, but $100K seems like pennies when you compare it to the profit-making potential of the winner. I could be completely wrong though so if you can win the money without having to hand any intellectual property over to machi.na, it sounds like a sweet deal. So if you are not a trader already and you develop this, the $100K will set you up for a very profitable algo career!
Otherwise the business side in me looks to this as 3 things:
Cheap way to optimize your program by utilizing 'free labor'. If hundreds enter this contest and machi.na has access to their modifications, then that is information that is very likely worth over $100k.
Great marketing
Potential recruitment tactic, a very very good one
Again I want to emphasize the fact that I'm speculating purely on what I've read on this post so far, as I have not been able to access the site. This is just my 'knee jerk' reaction I guess.
I hope this doesn't come off as cynical because I think this is a genius business decision.
Sounds very interesting, cheers!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
"In December 2015, we created the world’s first encrypted data science tournament for stock market predictions. Since then, Numerai data scientists have submitted 11,309,764,339 equity price predictions.
The most accurate and original machine learning models from the world’s best data scientists are synthesized into a collective artificial intelligence that controls the capital in Numerai’s hedge fund.
We reward outstanding contributions from the data science community with Bitcoin."
"but $100K seems like pennies when you compare it to the profit-making potential of the winner"
Agree, and if you could write a model that predicts broad market trends, why would you submit it to them? For that matter, if you could write such a model, why haven't somebody done already?
I think the answer is that you actually can't predict the market, and they know that.
I bet they are thinking: we could probably recruit some really good talent.
I'm a member of Quantopian, and they have the same pitch...except no cash award. And you are stuck using their cruddy proprietary version of Python.
Winton, another Hedge Fund, ran a similar contest earlier this year on Kaggle. They were pretty clear that they were looking for people to recruit, and I think they actually did hire some.
If one's goal is not necesarilly winning some cash from competition but to learn than apart from already mentioned Kaggle, MS has also interesting proposal: Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Studio
