Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
It’s time for me to focus more on trading and less on analysis. I will start today to trade the ES 5 min chart discretionary (in simulation mode) during the first two hours of the regular session. I will post my preparation analysis before opening and a chart with my trades and comments when I’m done for the day.
I was inspired by @GruttePier and his journal and motivated by Big Mikes FIO Journal Challenge - February 2017 to finally start my own journal.
The purpose of this journal is:
• to form a regular routine for my discretionary trading
• get new insights about my weaknesses to be able to make the required changes to improve my trading
• to get valuable feedback from fellow traders
I have been interested in trading for many years and have some experience swing trading stocks. After reading Al Brooks books I decided to learn more about trading futures and started to program automated “price action” based intraday strategies in NT. I have spent plenty of time with programming indicators and back testing strategies in NT as well as statistical research in R. Although I have learned a lot, the main lesson is that markets constantly change and very few things last in trading.
An idea for the future is to create a semi-automated strategy that starts when I’m done for the day and continues to trade during the remaining RTH session. This strategy would be based on S/R-levels from the daily pre-session preparation together with a discretionary evaluation of the kind of day that did unfold during the first hours of the RTH session.
If you appreciate my journal you may support me in "Big Mikes FIO Journal Challenge - July 2017" with aThanks to this post.
2. S/R-levels and Targets based on drill down analysis of charts:
• 2 years Daily (ETH)
• 2 month 60 min (ETH)
• 2 week 30 min (ETH)
• 2 days 5 min (RTH)
I look for S/R-levels that are tested several times in thin areas (Volume Histogram) and that are confluencing with other S/R-levels like High/Low/Close and Floor Pivots. I look for targets at spike projections.
I will also watch the VWAP (Daily, Weekly and Monthly) and 60 min EMA20 for possible S/R.
Setups and management
TR Day
Clues for a TR day are:
• Low relative volume
• No consecutive strong breakouts beyond VWAP + 2 SD
During the first hour I will only enter at LOD/HOD after two obvious legs for a reversal back in the opening range. Price should be at least at the ADN (Average Daily Noise) or at a S/R level. (Orev)
After the first hour I will only enter at LOD/HOD after two obvious legs when price is at VWAP +- 2 SD or a S/R for a reversal back to VWAP. (TrRev)
Target is VWAP or S/R-level and SL is where rerward/risk = 2. (But never less than 2 points )
Trend Day
Clues for a Trend day are:
• High relative volume
• Consecutive strong breakouts beyond VWAP + 2SD
• Several consecutive breakouts with HH and HL and only small pullbacks
During the first hour I will only enter on:
• First or second bar when it’s likely a trend day and bar shows strength (T1b)
• LOD/HOD at S/R-level (Orev)
After the first hour I will only enter on:
• early breakout bar in first strong spike in new trend that hasn’t reached beyond VWAP + 2 SD (BO)
• Breakout pullback to VWAP, pullback to S/R-level or major spike low (BP)
Initial target is BO spike projection or S/R and inital SL is at BO spike Low/high.
If trend looks strong SL is trailed and adjusted to new breakout spike low/high.
Risk management rules
1. Don’t trade during major news
• Unemployment Rate
• ADP Non-Farm Employment change
• Non-Farm Employment change
• FOMC Meeting Minutes
• FOMC Statement
• US GDP
I was short of time for my pre-session analysis today. (To write the first posts for this journal and to get familiar with the NT chart trader and ATM strategies took longer than expected.) So I forgot to mention the FOMC at 2 PM (EST) in my prep, post above. This was a pitty since I missed an easy short today, at least in hindsight. No big move usually occur before FOMC news so the overnight high on low volume was expected to be corrected.
Trade 1: - 4 points
- long opening reversal (Orev) after 2 legs down and close of opening gap. God signal bar but after two strong BO bars.
- Target was WVAP. So I used a 4 point SL for a 3 point Target.
- Bad RR, so not OK!
Trade 2: + 3,25 points
- long TR reversal (TrRev) after 3 legs down to weekly VWAP (support). Relative volume was increasing so I suspected that the OTF traders were beginning to scale in for a long at session low . I have seen this many times before on TR days.
- I did enter below the DB, but maybe I should have waited and entered below the next low, the big bear BO bar, that is common before LoD on TR days?
- Target was VWAP, but I had to exit before the FOMC news.
- Inital SL was 3 points and SL was adjusted below weekly VWAP.
- OK
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral (-0,19%)
Asia: neutral (-0,57% - + 0,31%)
oil: neutral (+0,32%)
gold: up (+ 1,39%)
Bonds: down (-0,40% - - 2.46%)
Sentiment is neutral (or sligthly down)
Higher TF charts show TR/ bull flag.
Overnight made a LL on relative high volume. Today will open with a bear OG.
S/R
Support:
2261,5 (R1 and low of week)
2248,25 (161201 swing low)
Resistance:
2280.00 (Prior Week VWAP and Weekly PP)
2285,5 (High of Week)
Inital bias
Yesterday was another TR day.
My inital bias is that today will be another TR day or small bear trend day. I belive that we will test the overnigh low and probably also support level at 2261,5 (R1 and low of week). The PB after previous week bull trend has not ended yet. If 2261,5 is tested it would be a LL pullback on higher TF charts .
Trade 1: -4 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. My bias was short
2. Price at Weekly VWAP, so possible resistance
3. Price peaked above the big first 5 min bar I thought "trapped traders = 2nd entry short" .
I was afraid of missing the move down, so I used a large 4 point SL in case we would get another leg up.
I should have waited for the second leg up according to my rules, although that also would have been a losing trade, since the two first legs appeared to be sub legs in the two bigger legs up, just below resistance level at 2280.
Trade 2: - 4 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. My bias was still short
2. Increasing relative volume = OTF scaling in
3. When I saw the strong leg down from resistance level at 2280 and a PB, I expected a Measured Move down.
Not OK. This is not a setup I want to trade. Entering close to VWAP om a TR day is a low probability trade.
Conclusion: From now on I will strictly follow my entry rules.
Higher TF charts show TR/ bull flag. Price is at high in weekly TR.
Overnight made a HH on relative high volume (unemployment news) to a new High of Week and is testing resistance at 2285,5. Today will open with a bull OG.
S/R
Support:
2261,5 (R1 and low of week)
2248,25 (161201 swing low)
Inital bias
Yesterday was another TR day.
My inital bias is that today will be another TR day or bear trend day and that we will go lower. We are at high in the weekly TR and the PB on the higher TF chart is not completed yet.
