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July contest journal -estimation trading


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July contest journal -estimation trading

  #1 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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This journal is based on estimation trading.

It will follow the combine rules:

150K Trading Combine:
Trade up to 15 contracts
Trade a minimum of 10 days
Daily Loss Limit = $3,000, Max Drawdown = $4,500, Profit Target = $9,000

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  #3 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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For 5 July
Estimates for high and low (H/L)
H/L est 2436.50 to 2419.00

Trade 1
bot 4 with an average price of 2421.125
sld at 23.50 and 27.50
profit $875



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  #4 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
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The FE estimate is the important one.
Today it was the estimate for the LE as we had a dir +1 and inflection day

So the main trade was to buy the LE and that estimate was within a tick.



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  #5 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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-------------Thursday ----------
9:18 AM 7/6/2017

Well I feel like spitting nails.

I am so pissed off.

Last night my program crashed and so I had to stay up late to complete the EOD updating of spreadsheets. This meant not asleep til 1:30am and I couldn't get up at 6am alarm - so I got up at 7:30am. I rushed through the morning updates but things were not conspiring to aid me. The sound of a tree chipper was really distracting (I hate the way people needlessly cut trees as though they were weeds - while the planet is dying) -closed the window - now getting really hot.. etc.

In any case I had a sell at 2422.50 and it got to 2422.25 and quickly reversed before I could pull the trigger. It's been down to 2410.25 and is at 2414.50 now so I missed it.

When people waste my time, I find it so frustrating. At the coffeeshop a friend was there and he has a rambling way of talking. aka Abe Simpson -"we really give them a working over. We tell long rambling stories that lead nowhere, "like the time when I wore an onion on my belt, as was the fashion at that time...." He needs help to get his computer fixed but goes on and on.. I feel like screaming. Anyways what could have been a 30 sec conversation was 30 minutes. Could that have made the difference and my program not crashing and me completing my updating on time and home for a good sleep? - probably.

Time lost cascades.

So this morning:
First trade sell near open 2422.50
Actual 2422.25 08:37

H/L est
2423.00
2407.75

Dir -1
Mid Chg 2
Range est 15.25
First Leg = -1




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  #6 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Made $1275

Basically sold the retracement.
Really should have just held after establishing a position - but I'm quite tired and was off doing little things - my heart wasn't in it.

Perhaps I'll actually catch the setup tomorrow - should there be one on cabbage Friday.
Hope someone in contest journal land knocked it out of the park!



Estimates were excellent





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  #7 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Loss -$1187.50

traded against my direction of the day (which was up) - went out in a rush when cleaning lady came in - roommates dog barks like crazy and forgot to close second trade

Trade the plan and not against it!



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  #8 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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no trades


08:24 AM
July 10, 2017
The estimated open is 2422.00
The first point is estimated at 2421.00
The first push is to 2418.50 (average of these is 19.75)
The onf is up for +5or more from first low
We are expecting a change in intraday direction
The estimated main direction of the day is down
Dir -1
Mid Chg 6
Range est 14.50


10:20 AM 7/10/2017
Points so far:
2419.25 @ 08:31
2427.50 @ 10:09

At this time I have changed my estimate to cabbage
The inflection signal is now "no change in intraday direction"
I had overridden the default est to 2426-2411.50
however the DDAutoEst=2432.00 to 2419.50 => dif 12.50
As 2419.25 at 8:30 is inplace (the LE of DDauto) I am reducing the rng est to 10 or less
2419.25 +10 = 2429.25 or less.
Of course this could be wrong but if it is the case then I have missed the FE of the day, the LE and my rules forbid 1st trade under these conditions.

Note: I actually did put on a trade later and made a profit but not counting it +$587.50


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  #9 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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5:48 PM 7/11/2017
Today started off Ok trading the plan and selling at 2425
(HE = 2426)
loss -$387.50









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  #10 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 4,034 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 1,509
Thanks Received: 2,593


I forgot to reduce my range est and the low est is ways off


High Est 2442.50
Actual High 2443.75
Dif= -1.25
Low Est 2427.25
Actual Low 2434.75
Dif= -7.50

lost -$375

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Last Updated on July 28, 2017


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