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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)


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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)

  #1 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

continuation of previous journals:




resurrecting, partly due to realigning strategies and slowly progressing using small accounts

have thrown out a lot that did not work, and kept things minimal to make sure things are running smoothly

lost a few k trading micros earlier this year, learned some and forced me to rethink

also on stocktwits as the same s/n, handspin

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  #2 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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today is no man's land, esp. with incoming data.. this is from the perspective of swing trading

energy is pushing higher though, has breached a couple R1s already so there is a limit there as well

one important thing is to take pause on such days and wait for further development

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  #3 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107


Seems to be dipping in preparation to get back to pre-FOMC levels from September '22, energy has been pushing

The better method would be to wait until return to pivot to confirm, took a risk and ate some losses attempting entry without testing the area first..

The reaction lower was pretty intense, reflexive but also provides a stronger reversal if this is the case.

//

also feel that nasdaq is leading with the energy component and has bottoming developments both ST/MT.. had to confirm on a day and weekly basis..

energy is still pushing and profile seems attractive toward 100s.. though inflationary also supportive and lower energy would also seem beneficial but currently has correlation with indexes

//

also the nasdaq growth component is likely more sensitive to rate updates

//

flat after exceeding extension, feels more like end of day positioning now

//

lower than the start of the week now

stair stepping since the AM, forced sellers swapping with opportunists
but vix sentiment is not letting things go easy, best be light and quick
essentially flat but there's bargain hunting going on against those caught

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  #4 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

weekend brief, after sleeping on it

picked up on a read after the fact but also seems like the range expanded

gut feel forced an exit over the weekend, likely correct with a bit further to dip

cannot say until pre market for sure

this is moreso for es, nq seems more developed

policy now with crude disconnecting and higher vol would be to not hold

and pay more attention to pivot zones to engage as those are considered accelerants

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  #5 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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energy fading, indexes continue lower, testing next rung, vix does confirm, playing small for now

//

continuation of last friday's move, hard to enter in between with these blips higher, energy still fading

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  #6 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

action is feeling like there are brakes to the drop, closing the range as crude puts pressure on rallies

maybe the start of rounding out, providing positioning opportunities along the way

//

following energy which is dragging this morning though vix is too

//

using the previous support as resistance, testing the next support though in a grind zone

also RBOB is in the 2.60s so refineries are taking a larger cut after taxes, one way to lower inflation is to offer incentives to prevent padded margins

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  #7 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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index support hit and bounced, prior broke through resistance but reversed

but not in energy, bonds also off

rule is to cut size at support, had unideal entry

dead cat like bounce have to wait now

//

after waiting, see that action is breaking out and now a forced buyer in current conditions

cpi was meh, possible overreaction.. previous days were suspiciously bouncy

//

something is still incomplete, was supported by energy but let's see what happens after nymex

possible retest of morning support

//

vix is supportive after energy closed, but bonds off weird tipping point so wait and see

//

energy visiting lower areas, though vix still supportive still waiting as indexes push

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  #8 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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possible breakdown developing based on energy and indexes, vix catching up, bonds not really moving

//

bonds starting to drag, crude is dipping further and approaching a turbulent zone in indexes

//

lightening up due to bond stasis, especially indexes with more growth based exposure

//

growth leading breakdown, eating up demand from previous days, small blip as entry look to test support from previous days as well and further possibly

//

friday action, bonds are not liking it, energy last man standing, indexes turned off, vix trying to extend possibly

//

seems to be facing downward toward to find another support, though blippy on bounces

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  #9 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

weekend pause, rithmic app is nice

crude looks to be testing lower based on s/r level patterns

the level behavior is more trendy vs indexes but those will likely follow

vix is pushing too

//

less certain now looking at the overnight, also count may be off

//

nice turnaround, noticed that vix is having a mid-life crisis trying to go back under 30

energy also pushing

//

energy dragging a bit and breadth is also sluggish but vix is plowing through

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  #10 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107


may cancel out and continue lower but vix is also adamant about testing support

likely reloads out there on positioning, jumpy and bumpy

//

looks to be pushing various resistance

//

supportive on indexes but a grind

//

vix turned after the dump

//

note that the gap was faded to bring things back to previous close

can be seen as a positive vs non stop push

earnings soon so a bit more cautious near the close

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Last Updated on December 19, 2022


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