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Does anyone have any experience or insight to the short-term bond trading system offered through eMiniBonds.com. I tried contacting the vendor but didn't receive a response (strike one); also, based on the videos that the guy has posted, it looks like his risk/reward is so high that his percentage of profitability has to be upwards of 80% to make any money (strike two).
That being said, I've been investigating different systems for trading the US Bond futures, and this website came across my radar.
If anyone has used this system, it'd be great to hear from you.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I actually went ahead and purchased this system late a while back.
The guy who runs it, Simon, seems like a reasonable guy (although he takes weeks to respond to an email) and I was not bombarded with a lot of emails or pitches for buying additional things, like seminars or indicators or whatever. You pay your money, you get access to a bunch of videos where he describes how he trades the long bond and that's about it. It's exactly what he promised and nothing more. From my limited interactions with him, I do not believe that Simon is a flim-flam artist or anything other than who he says he is.
The system that he describes is a short-term momentum based system that uses fairly standard indicators. You could certainly use it to trade the long bond everyday, although it's not clear to me how successful it is because (as I mention below) it is difficult to back test and Simon does not have any historical performance numbers to review.
I am a purely systematic trader, and so Simon's approach had some drawbacks for me:
1) He uses tick data and I find it's hard to back test reliably using tick data;
2) This is not a purely mechanical system - there is definitely some discretion involved. For example, in one of his videos, after he has a series of losing trades in a day, he talks about taking a trade on and letting it run for more than the regular two ticks; however, he doesn't say how he makes the decision to do so; and
3) The system generates a lot of signals and so I had to do some additional work to filter out some of the signals to focus only on the strongest ones (the determination of strength has to do with how the market is trading on different time frames).
To his credit, his videos cover his strategy OVER AND OVER again ... to the point of becoming monotonous. That's fine - he is just making sure you understand the strategy well.
As I mentioned in my first post, the eMiniBonds strategy involves looking to make 2 ticks but risking 4 (with opportunities to move up the stop). You have to decide for yourself whether that type of risk-reward tradeoff is worthwhile for you.
