hi rich - thanks for stopping by and taking the time to answer our questions about the ttt - i believe the ppl that had questions have broken for lunch now - maybe you could monitor this forum to see if they come back and ask questions
Today is a Buy day and as mentioned earlier we were to expect a Decline. Yesterday the SS day close on the highs, therefore the decline was not started. In cases like that then we expect a test of these highs before the decline starts.
We also know that ES has a 93% chance of having a Decline on Buy days, even if the Decline is as small as 1 tick. So based on that information it was appropriate to find any excuse to short at or near the open. In the case of ES I had fib at 1047.66 which provided a good entry area for shorts.
In bullish markets, declines can easily be smaller than average and this morning was no exception. Markets retraced 50% and the rally started.
Please feel free to ask questions and I will drop in from time to time to answer them
Thank you for inviting me to join this thread.
Hi Richard - I am doing the trial of your service. Was just curious that this rally on the BD means a SD rally has begun? and perhaps a decline from tomorrow's projected high is highly probable? Thanks in advance!
Thank you for trying my products and I hope you can find the tool as usefull as I do.
Yes the SD rally as begun this morning. As we all know markets rarely move steadily in 1 direction. If we were to close as the current level, we probaly have only done 1/2 the average rally. Sell Days can often be what I call confusing days. By that I mean up down up down etc.
So when we are in the middle of the road like that then it is normal to get a confusing day. If we had closd on the low of the Buy day then it would be much easier to say yes we will go up most of the day on the sell day.
Today is a Sell day. On Sell days we should expect a rally from the Buy day low.
Yesterday the decline was small, pointing to a bullish market.
Today ES gapped up at the open and never filled the gap therefore putting TVGR in effect.
TVGR has nothing to do with Taylor and TTT but I found that this rule is very strong.
As we can see on the chart TTT MA D (average rally MA recap) at 1054.90 did offer some resistance and also the 1062 area and that was TTT MA p (average penetration MA recap). The Black lines above if reached, should most likely cap today's rally.
Here is an explanation of TVGR written by Trader Vic
The Trader Vic Gap Rule (TVGR) "If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap." This Rule is cited from Victor Sperandeo’s book: Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231
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