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Backtesting

Backtesting is the process of evaluating a trading method using historical data. By looking for statistical significance of how the method performed in the past, one can make an attempt to predict how a trading method might perform in the future.

Example Equity Curve during backtestingExample Equity Curve during backtesting


Some popular trading platforms that include the ability to backtest trading methods include: NinjaTrader, TradeStation, and MultiCharts.

While backtesting can reveal a strength or weakness in a method, the results are not always correlated to future outcomes. You can use a large sample size such as 5 years of market data, or more, and still fall victim to over fitting or curve fitting your method to fit the historical data, instead of merely data mining to a positive outcome.

Contents


[top]In-depth 2 hour webinar on backtesting
Big Mike and Manesh Patel discuss Automated Trading and Backtesting in-depth in a 2-hour webinar dated Thursday, May 10th 2012. Topics included: Human vs Automation, Data for Backtesting, Data Mining, Curve Fitting, In-sample vs Out-of-sample, Process Diagram, Discussion of prerequisites and common pitfalls, discussion of important performance metrics to consider during a backtesting, and much more.



The webinar is available here (for Elite Members):
https://www.bigmiketrading.com/webina...g_backtesting/
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In-depth Webinar Video on Backtesting (2 hours) [Elite Members only]
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Created by  Big Mike , June 27th, 2010 at 05:42 AM
Last edited by  Big Mike , May 12th, 2012 at 04:16 PM
0 Comments, 10,554 Views

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backtesting, cd, data, data mining, equity, equity curve, es, future, historical, historical data, market, market data, method, metrics, ninja, performance, platforms, sample, statistical, strength, trades, trading, trading method
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Copyright © 2014 by Big Mike Trading. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 

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